The Typhon medium-range Tomahawk cruise missile ground-based system deployed by US Army and Marine Corps (US ARMY)
It has been a brutal summer campaign for Russia in 2025. Per the Economist, for a gain of less than 0.4% of Ukraine, Russia has suffered at least 100,000 killed in action and likely 2.5 to 3 times that number injured. Despite their lack of manpower, Ukraine’s defense is holding. AI drone swarming technology, the latest innovation in this drone-dominated war, has held Russia in check. Ukraine has done so at very favorable casualty exchange rates. Five Russians are killed for every Ukrainian lost on the front.
In addition to the drone confrontation, Ukraine has been effectively executing a strategy that the Allies executed in WW2: striking transportation and marshaling areas near the war's front lines and attacking POL (Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant) production facilities.
According to the Kyiv Independent and Reuters, strikes on Russian oil facilities have interrupted 17% of the country's refining capacity, causing fuel shortages and reducing critical revenue-generating oil exports. It appears Russia has an Achilles heel: oil production.
Ukraine's attacks are limited in both distance and bomb capacity. long-range drones carry less than 20% of the explosive capacity of long-range cruise missiles. If only Ukraine had more powerful missiles that could reach deeper into Russia.
Enter the threat of Ukraine receiving US Tomahawk cruise missiles. Armed with several hundred Tomahawk missiles, nearly the entire Russian oil refining and petroleum ecosystem would be within striking range.
This has provided President Trump with a very powerful bargaining tool and a simple choice for Vladimir Putting:
Come to the bargaining table with a ceasefire and cessation of the war, or face a Tomahawk-armed Ukraine capable of crippling deep attacks on critical military bases and oil infrastructure.
Of course ,Tomahawks as bargaining leverage can only work if President Trump is willing to carry out the threat selling them to Ukraine. In negotiations, as in deterrence, credibility is everything. Considering that the President ordered the massive Midnight Hammer attack on Iran, Putin will have to factor that in his decision calculus.
Since this is Dystopic, let's dig a little deeper into this story.
But First … Some Shameless Self-Promotion
How The Hell Did We Get Here? the Audio Book
Want to learn more about the global situation, the ongoing chaos, and what the U.S. and our Allies can do to get things under control? Then check out my new book: How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
A #1 new release in Amazon National and International Security
Do you prefer audiobooks? Fantastic news, the audiobook made in collaboration with British voice actor Michael McMahon is now available!
The book and audiobook are available on Amazon USA HERE and Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major online retailers.
In case you missed them, My three-part series of newsletters on the Golden Dome has been a hit! You can find the newsletters here:
History Repeats Itself or “Everything Old Is New Again”
Despite being outmanned and outgunned, Ukraine is holding its own against Russia. Ukraine’s exploits against Russia have revolutionized warfare, pitting ever-increasing capable low-cost drones against legacy armor and artillery, and against Russian counter-escalation with their own drone innovations.
It is the strategy that Ukraine is using, not just the weapons, that are key to Ukraine’s ability to hold Russia at bay. Interestingly enough, Ukraine is taking a page from the Allies’ World War 2 playbook. Specifically:
The Transportation Plan
The Oil Plan
The Transportation Plan was a bombing operation executed from March to August 1944 aimed at limiting all possible access routes to the invasion area of Normandy. UK Lancaster and US B-17 strategic bombers targeted bridges, roads, tunnels, waterways, railways, and railway stations, mainly in Belgium, Nazi Germany, and France, with the aim of limiting all possible access routes to the invasion area of Normandy.
The Transport Plan was largely successful, interfering with Germany’s ability to move troops and supplies to counter the D-Day invasion of Normandy. This allowed for the August 1944 launch of Operation Cobra, the massive ground assault, supported by air power, that shattered the German lines near Saint-Lô. This breakout led to a rapid advance across France, culminating in the liberation of Paris.
In a mirror fashion to WW2, Ukraine targets rail lines, bridges, fuel and weapons depots, and military martialing areas, breaking up major assaults on the front before they can start. Blunting Russia from achieving the sort of breakout that the Allies in WW2 were able to achieve at Saint-Lô.
A B-24 Liberator emerges from the heavy smoke after attacking the Xenia oil refinery at Ploesti, Romania, in August 1943. (US Air Force)
The Oil Plan was conducted in parallel with the Transportation Plan and lasted until the end of the war in Europe. Between May 1944 and May 1945, the United States Strategic Air Forces—Eighth Air Force from England, Fifteenth Air Force from North Africa and later Italy, and the Royal Air Force Bomber Command—conducted a systematic bombing campaign against German oilfields, refineries, and synthetic oil production plants.
As the US Air Force Air University History office notes:
By September 1944, the around-the-clock bombing of the German oil industry had reduced the production of petroleum, oil, and lubricants, or POL, by more than 90 percent, resulting in spreading shortages of gasoline for German mechanized and motorized divisions and several curtailments of the Luftwaffe’s pilot training program.
As a historic mirror, in early 2024, with the development of more sophisticated long-range drones, Ukraine began a sustained campaign of attacks to systematically target and damage Russian oil refineries within reach of these new drone weapons.
MAP of Russian Refineries Hit by Ukraine. Blue – hit no damage, Yellow – hit unconfirmed damage, Orange – hit minimal damage, Red – hit confirmed significant damage (Caspian Policy Center)
According to the Caspian Policy Center, Ukraine has launched 61 drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and countless more on storage depots and pumping stations since January 2024. Attacks have reached as far as Moscow. A March 16, 2025, attack hit Moscow’s largest refinery and put 50% of Moscow’s fuel supply at risk.
These strikes have been effective. The volume of Russian oil refined has reached its lowest level in 12 years. As previously noted, Russia is experiencing a 17% reduction in refined oil products and a 10% reduction in Russian seaborne oil exports in 2024 and 2025.
Yet more than half of Russia’s oil production facilities lie out of reach of Ukraine. To really impact Russia's economy and make the average Russian feel the pain, long-range heavy missile capability is required.
Enter the request for the US Tomahawk missiles …
The Tomahawk Threat
The Institute for the Study of War (IWS) released an analysis of the Russian military targets that could be attacked if Ukraine possessed several hundred Tomahawk missiles. If Ukraine were limited to the 1,600 km range Tomahawk missile, at least 1,655 Russian military sites, including 67 air bases, and all of Russia’s drone production facilities. If the 2,500 Km Range variant were made available, the numbers would increase to 1,945 military sites and 67 airbases, as outlined in the following simplified illustration of the ISW Russian target data by Defense Weekly
The Tomahawk Missile Threat (Defense Weekly)
The ISW study does not take into account the crippling effect of Ukraine’s Oil Plan campaign. Armed with several hundred 2,500 Km Range Tomahawks, nearly all of Russia's critical refining and oil transport infrastructure could be targeted. A barrage of Tomahawk attacks would cripple Russia’s oil industry and severely damage Russia's economy and the war effort.
As tempting as military targets may be, the greater damage to the war effort and the Russian economy would come from Ukraine targeting a combination of oil infrastructure and drone production facilities - this is the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over Russia’s head.
Europe has now earmarked over $2 billion in weapons in the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). Should President Trump give the go-ahead to PURL, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that the US can safely provide 1,000 Tomahawks along with a wide variety of additional weapons, as outlined in the following table. In reality, the US is building up its reserves of Tomahawks for a potential conflict against China and the US would only allow a limited supply, likely than 200, to be deployed to Ukraine.
Munitions available for purchase and transfer under PURL -Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (CSIS)
This is still an incredibly potent threat when considering the entire package of PURL weapons – It is time President Trump approved the full range of PURL weapons
While Russia threatens to strike NATO countries if PURL and the Tomahawks in particular are deployed. I suspect, much like Russian nuclear threats, that the threat to NATO rings hollow.
Russian S-300 and S-400 are incapable of detecting striking F-35 Lightning stealth fighter-bombers armed with long-range standoff weapons. Israel proved that in its strikes, early retaliation on Iran, and in the 12-Day Israel-Iran War. As it turns out, Tomahawks are equally capable against Russian air defense systems based on US Tomahawk attacks on Syria, as reported by Defense Weekly:
Tomahawks were successfully deployed to knock out Russian air defense targets in Syria in 2017 and 2018.
"Russian [defense] systems covered Syrian targets at the time but failed [to down Tomahawks]," the expert said, adding that the missiles are "especially effective when launched in salvos, as overloading air defenses increases their success rate." Russian S-400 or Pantsir systems, he said, are "weak against Tomahawks."
--- Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation
SO, Tomahawks are a major threat. However, Tomahawks are ship and submarine-based weapons. Ukraine is requires land not ship-based systems. This begs the question, Do land-based systems exist to deploy to Ukraine? As it turns out, YES, they are available...
Typhoon – the US Land-Based Tomahawk System to Counter China’s Naval Threats to Taiwan (or Strike Russia)
The U.S. Army’s Typhon missile system is displayed for reporters at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, Sept. 15, 2025. (Stars and Stripes
In September 2025, a little more than a month before I began writing this newsletter, the US Army transported and activated a Typhon missile defense battery at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan. The deployment was part of the annual Resolute Dragon training exercise between the US Marine Corps and the Japanese Self Defense Force.
As reported by Stars and Stripes, Typhon is composed of multiple truck-based, trailer-loaded systems that can fire modified US Navy SM-6 anti-ship missiles and Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles. Typhon is designed for transport on US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. Typhon systems from the U.S. Army’s 3rd Multi-Domain Task Force, based in Hawaii, were flowing in and activated in under a day.
Test firing of a Tomahawk midrange cruise missile (US Navy)
The US Army began testing Typhon in 2023. It began deployment in the Philippines in 2024, specifically to counter a possible Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan and to bring Chinese invasion staging and support bases under direct attack. In addition to the joint US-Japan Resolute Dragon training exercise, an equivalent rapid deployment training exercise, Talisman Sabre 25, was conducted in July in Australia.
CSIS estimates that each land-attack Tomahawk missile costs approximately $2.2million, and the launcher costs roughly $6.4 million. The total price tag for 200 missiles and 100 launchers, allowing for two major massed attack salvos, would be $840.2 million. This is just an example; negotiations between the US and Ukraine would define the actual weapons package provided to Ukraine.
Closing Thoughts
The Tomahawk is a powerful lever to help bring about peace between Russia and Ukraine. Yet despite Trump's best efforts, the animosity between Putin and Zelensky is palpable. They detest each other. While Ukraine can hold its front line, it lacks the ability to launch a counteroffensive to reclaim territory or leverage to negotiate any territorial concessions. While Zelensky lobbied for Tomahawks in Washington last week, he failed to acknowledge that Ukraine would have to cede occupied territory, infuriating President Trump.
According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump was so disappointed with Zelensky’s position that he threatened that Ukraine would not receive Tomahawks anytime soon. Zelensky and Trump could inadvertently play into Putin's hands and remove the Tomahawk's powerful negotiating leverage from the table. This leaves Ukraine and Russia to muddle into a fifth year of war. Yet another year with 100,000 Russians and 20,000 Ukrainians killed in action, and 240,000 plus wounded in action.
What an incredible waste!
And In Other News …
Trump-Putin Summit in Budapest is Canceled
As reported by the Wall Street Journal, AL Jazeera, and other news outlets. Trump has called off a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin
As Al Jazeera reports:
Plans for an in-person meeting between United States President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in the next two weeks in Budapest, Hungary, fell apart on Tuesday, after Trump proposed “freezing” the Russia-Ukraine war with a ceasefire along the current front lines.
Apparently signaling that no meeting would take place anytime soon, Trump told the media at the White House on Tuesday: “I don’t want to have a wasted meeting. I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens.”
As this Dystopic newsletter has maintained since Trump was elected, Russia will only respond to strength. Trump and Europe need to go all in on sanctions against Russia. The US needs to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine – specifically the TYPHOON -TOMAHAWK SYSTEM, specifically targeted to OIL INFRASTRUCTURE.
Most importantly, Trump must quit wavering on taking a hard line with Russia. Why is he so soft on Putin? A hard reversal of policy is required. The Russian people will have to feel the pain along with the Russian economy. A sad but necessary outcome to achieve peace
IN LATE BREAKING NEWS…
Short of Tomahawks, Trump has begun tightening the screws on Russia economically while negotiating arms sale to Ukraine with the NATO Secretary General in Washington.
Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is imposing further sanctions as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine. Today’s actions increase pressure on Russia’s energy sector and degrade the Kremlin’s ability to raise revenue for its war machine and support its weakened economy. The United States will continue to advocate for a peaceful resolution to the war, and a permanent peace depends entirely on Russia’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. Treasury will continue to use its authorities in support of a peace process.
The Treasury Department specifically targeted Russia’s two largest oil companies, Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company (Rosneft) and Lukoil OAO (Lukoil).
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Washington D.C. where he met with the President of the United States, Mr Donald J Trump to discuss NATO’s support for securing an end to the war against Ukraine and a just and lasting peace.
He [Secretary Rutte] highlighted the role that NATO plays in providing military assistance to Ukraine that supports the country’s ability to defend itself today and deter against future aggression. This includes aid provided through PURL (the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) through which essential US equipment, funded by NATO Allies, is supplied to Ukraine
There are conflicting reports on whether President Trump has or has not removed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of its existing arsenal of US and NATO weapons (ATACAM & Storm Shadow missiles) following his meeting with Rutte.
It is a fluid situation – don’t be surprised if there is a reversal on sending Tomahawks to Ukraine.
Circular AI Investment – A Bubble Warning
As reported in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and just about every business news outlet, over the last few months, a troublesome set of interconnected vendor financing deals have been occurring between the AI giants of Silicon Valley. AI Model companies, especially OpenAI and less prominently xAI, have sealed a series of deals with AI chip providers AMD, Nvidia, and Intel, along with infrastructure deals with IBM, CoreWeave, and Oracle. The business media has coined the term “Circular AI Investments” to describe the tangled web of deals between the major players in the AI ecosystem.
Circular AI Investments among major AI ecosystem companies (Bloomberg)
Fair enough, the telecom boom of the late 1990s saw equivalent rounds of vendor financing and investment input that accelerated the rollout of cable, optical, and DSL broadband. The Telecom boom led to a Telecom bust, which was less publicized than the Dotcom bust in the early 2000s. The worry is that history is repeating itself. AI, much like Telecom 25 years ago, has to build massive infrastructure to sign on and support customers. In the Telecom Era, those customers came too slowly, and an avalanche of deals fell apart – does anyone remember the WorldCom fiasco?
What happens if AI adoption and resulting profits are too slow to materialize? Unfortunately, the same implosion and unwinding of interconnected deals is possible. How bad could it get? 90% of the Telecom “darlings” of the early 2000s failed and went bankrupt. Is it fair to say 90% of AI companies could fail?
Keep an eye on the AI's profitability, as there will be a binary outcome: BOOM or BUST!
That’s a wrap for this week …
Next week, I’ll be attending Silicon Valley Space Week (SVSW) and giving a lecture on Golden Dome Technology Challenges at the Military Satellite Symposium, which is part of SVSW. Our Next Dystopic takes a look at the technologies and companies leading the New Space form Silicon Valley Space Week.
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
Thank you for your readership and support. Please recommend Dystopic to friends and family who are interested, or just share
If you have missed a Dystopic News letter, you can find select back copies HERE
Finally, pick up a copy of my book or listen to the new audiobook:
How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
Available on Amazon USA HERE, Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major retailers online.
