Dystopic - Red Alert - The New US Space-Based Early Warning System - PWSA
Published about 1 month ago • 17 min read
September 28, 2025
Dystopic Newsletter
Red Alert - The New US Space-Based Early Warning System - PWSA
Artist concept of PWSA Tracking Layer Satellites using optical communications links (Lockheed Martin)
The New US Space-Based Early Warning System: PWSA -Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture
As we previously discussed in the first in a series of newsletters on the technology behind the proposed Golden Dome system, the proliferation of new extended-range cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles poses a threat to the US, our Allies, and armed forces deployed globally. The threat is two-fold:
Without an integrated layered missile and air defense, including a space-based, “Over-layer,” missile defense, our allies, forward bases, deployed Navy fleets, and even the US homeland are at risk.
Our standard terrestrial (earth-based) early warning radars no longer provide adequate early warning for cruise and hypervelocity weapon threats
Golden Domes space-based missile defense is based on the Reagan Era “Brilliant Pebbles” concept from the Strategic Defense Initiative ( SDI)
A space-based missile defense provides an “over-layer” of defense, allowing interceptors to target attacking missiles in their “boost phase” before they can deploy multiple warheads or countermeasures
Advances in technology and a reduction in the cost to launch have made the concept feasible
1000s of satellite interceptors would be placed in a group of orbital planes, making a constellation of interceptors covering the entire Earth.
Due to the nature of orbital mechanics, the space-based interceptor constellation will provide a global defense. However, only a limited number of interceptors are in range to engage a specific attack. The limited availability of space-based missiles over a specific set of targets is referred to as the “absentee ratio.”
Even for a basic defense, 4000 to 6000 space-based interceptors would be needed to intercept a massed attack of ~200 missiles from an enemy. Analysis by Todd Harrison at the American Enterprise Institute estimates that a robust defense against a full-scale nuclear attack by Russia and China would require between 75,000 and 85,000 space-based interceptors, costing several trillion dollars.
Golden Dome, at least to start, is intended to provide a limited defense capable of thwarting any attack from North Korea or a future nuclear-armed Iran, and degrading a first strike from Russia or China.
Fielding and operating a space-based missile defense represents a major technical and operational challenge in and of itself. Without the detection of an attack and the management of the layered defenses, the over (space-based system), upper(terrestrial theater systems), and lower ( terminal defense systems) to engage the attack, the concept of “deterrence by denial”, a robust layered defense of missile interceptor world would be useless.
Enter a complimentary space-based system for early warning, tracking, and communications, the PWSA- Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture – the sensors and brain behind the future Golden Dome System, and the subject of this Dystopic newsletter.
Before we delve into the PWSA specifically, let’s begin with an overview of “deterrence through situational awareness and knowledge.” The combination of intelligence/reconnaissance, early warning sensors, communications, and “command and control” ( aka battle management), which lies at the heart of the future Golden Dome and current US regional defense systems
Early Warning- Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3)
My book, How The Hell Did We Get Here? discusses the breadth of soft and hard power elements that make a deterrence regime. Missile defense increases deterrence by thwarting all or most of an enemy's attack, leaving them open to a devastating counterattack while limiting harm to the nation and its defenses. It is the concept of “Deterrence by Denial.”
However, “Deterrence by Denial” is only possible if combined with “Deterrence Through Situational Awareness and Knowledge.” To better understand the relationship, I will borrow a passage from the chapter of my book on Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I):
Note: In recent months, C4I terminology has been updated to Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3) – I’ll note both in this passage.
At any moment in regions across the world, an attack could be launched on the U.S. and its allies. There will be a few minutes to as little as a few seconds to detect the hostile act, warn the chain of command, select the best available response or defense, authorize weapons release, and engage the threat. As I write these words, U.S. Navy Destroyers are detecting, tracking, and destroying Houthi missile and drone attacks on unarmed shipping vessels in the Red Sea with their sophisticated AEGIS air defense systems. ( Ziezulewicz , 2024) Practically every hour, Israeli air defense is fending off missile and drone attacks from Gaza and Lebanon. Satellite Early Warning systems with powerful infrared sensors detect the signature of a North Korean Intercontinental ballistic missile launch, handing off information to other radar and optical tracking systems, which use powerful algorithms and AI to determine the likely target of the missile. Real-time missile launch intelligence data allows Japanese, South Korean, and U.S. Pacific theater commanders to decide if the North Korean missile launch is simply a test or an actual strike. (Mahadzir, 2023) These examples illustrate the end-to-end capabilities of well-designed Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence (C4I) systems, as illustrated in the following diagram:
Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence -aka - Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications
We can use the human body as an analogy to describe a C4I (BMC3) system. Intelligence systems are the body's senses: its eyes and ears. Communications and computing are the nervous system of our C4I (BMC3) body. Command and Control is the brain of the C4I (BMC3) body, processing our eyes' and ears' view of the world and converting them to actions for our body.
The starting point for a C4I (BMC3) system is Intelligence. Intelligence gathers and synthesizes data from satellites, drones, AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System), airborne radar systems, and ground and sea-based radar systems operating worldwide. Intelligence data is processed in stages. Depending on the type of intelligence data, processing and synthesis can be performed hierarchically based on the location and complexity of the intelligence-gathering platform. As examples:
Locally for radar and missile defense systems – for example, Israel's Iron Dome is a short-range, < 10-mile defense radius, missile defense system with a self-contained tracking and fire control radar.
Regionally for intelligence data fusion from multiple systems at military theater command centers like the U.S. Central Command (CentCom)for the Middle East – for example, CentCom's coordination of multinational Navy, Air Force, and Ground Force anti-missile systems to defend Israel from Iranian Missile attack
Globally for satellite imaging and satellite radar satellites- for example, the SAR and Imaging satellites used by Ukraine to track Russian troop movements or the location of Russian, Chinese, or North Korean Nuclear missiles
The communications and computing elements of C4I
(BMC3) manage, process, and deliver refined intelligence across the local, regional, or global hierarchy of armed forces in the field and decision-makers in the chain of command. Communication is bidirectional, with intelligence flowing down to decision-makers and commands flowing back up to military forces, intelligence agencies, and civilian government agencies needing to take action.
The sheer scale and speed of the computer processing segment C4I (BMC3) are astounding. Powerful algorithms and AI synthesize and categorize a fusion of intelligence sources to determine what is changing, why it is changing, and whether it constitutes a threat. The breadth of data provided across the military and government is mind-boggling. For example, Earth-sensing imaging satellites not only monitor and track military activity, but they can also measure crop yields and damage from hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters. Processed Intelligence is made available in real-time to the decision-makers who must act on it.
From the viewpoint of deterrence, the U.S.'s C4I (BMC3) system must be accurate in intelligence processing, redundant in infrastructure, survivable, and resilient in failover and recovery in the face of major hostilities and attacks. Our adversaries must factor into any hostile escalation that the U.S. will retain the ability to detect their actions, assess and communicate across our chain of command, and execute offensive or defensive responses, no matter how severe their attacks. Their attacks will not leave the U.S. "blind, deaf, and dumb." We will retain Command and Control at all times. (DoD, 2020)
Further details can be found in my book, How The Hell Did We Get Here? which you can find HERE.
Continuing our overview ...
The US already possesses powerful regional “Early Warning and Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3)” capabilities. In the recent 12-Day War between Iran and Israel, the US Central Command integrated space-based infrared satellite sensors with US Navy Aegis, US Army THAAD threat radar, and Israel’s David's Sling and Iron Dome systems. This system allows the US Navy, US Army, US, British, and Israeli air forces, and Israeli missile defense to coordinate defense against massive ballistic missile attacks of 100 to nearly 300 missiles and defeat better than 90% of each attack. Iran’s ballistic missiles reach their targets in less than 10 minutes of flight time. Yet the US and our allies could track, assign defensive resources, and essentially thwart each Iranian attack.
Golden Dome will take this to the next level by integrating an upper space-based BMC3 system with the current regional/theater and local systems, which are used effectively today.
Let’s dig into the details …
PWSA: The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture
As part of the creation of the US Space Force, the Space Development Agency (SDA) was established on March 12, 2019. Its mission: “to create and sustain lethal, resilient, threat-driven, and affordable military space capabilities that provide persistent, resilient, global, low-latency surveillance to deter or defeat adversaries.”
SDA's first major effort was to define and develop a new National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA) to address the reconnaissance and tracking gaps created by new missile threats and to provide high-throughput, secure communications for the command and control of US and Allied forces worldwide. By 2022, this new system would receive its formal name: the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture -PWSA.
At the time, the US was using a combination of existing but dated military satellite communications systems with limited bandwidth. To augment that legacy military system, in 2021, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) awarded a classified $1.8 billion contract to SpaceX for the construction of a satellite network for government entities as a stopgap called STARSHIELD. While details are limited, it appears that STARSHIELD is composed of modified Strarlink satellites with additional sensors and highly secure/encrypted communications links.
STARSHIELD has been in use for several years now, filling the communications and sensor gap that exits in gagacy systems. Meanwhile, the SDA, taking a page from SpaceX’s staged “fail fast” development process, is building the Poliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA). The PWSA is being developed and fielded in tranches. As the SDA mission statement notes:
“SDA will deliver a minimum viable product - on time, every two years- by employing spiral development methods, adding capabilities to future generations as the threat evolves.”
We will explore the initial tranche deployments of PWSA later in this Dystopic … but first, what exactly does the PWSA do?
The PWSA Defined
The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture and its Functional Layers ( SDA - Space Development Agency)
The PWSA is defined as a set of “Layers” of capability using a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to provide tactical data to military commands and operations across the globe. These layer capabilities include:
Transport Layer to provide assured, resilient, low-latency military data and connectivity worldwide to the full range of warfighter platforms /
Tracking Layer to provide global indications, warning, tracking, and targeting of advanced missile threats, including hypersonic missile systems.
Battle Management Layer to provide automated space-based battle management through command and control, tasking, mission processing, and dissemination to support time-sensitive kill chain closure at campaign scales.
Custody Layerprovides targeting quality tracking data of time-critical targets, coupled with low-latency space data transport, to enable the creation of a targeting solution from the sensor to the warfighter. This is the critical selection and hand-off of data to the weapons systems that will perform the “shoot to kill” function. In a multiple engagement system, ‘custody” to engage the target is handed off from on defensive system to the next until the target is destroyed.
Navigation Layer creates GPS-independent navigation capability for the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) using optical communication terminals (OCT), and optical space to ground links. This is critical as any adversary will seek to jam and degrade GPS at the onset of battle. PWSA creates a secondary independent navigation capability.
Ground & Launch Layerprovides an integrated, resilient ground infrastructure necessary to enable the space-based capabilities of the other layers to transmit, receive, process, exploit, and disseminate data
To achieve these capabilities, the SDA is evolving the PWSA architecture in tranches, with each tranche deploying several hundred satellites with ever-improving capabilities roughly every two years.
SDA’s Continuous Development and Improvement Tranches (Microwave Journal)
Let’s take a brief look at each tranche that has been either launched or in planning at the time this newsletter was written.
Tranche 0 - status: Completed
Trance 0 was an experimental deployment of 28 satellites, comprising twenty Transport/Communications satellites and eight tracking layer satellites, that began deployment in 2023 and was completed in early 2024. Several capabilities were demonstrated during deployment, including tracking sensors, intersatellite optical links, and tactical links military commands and operational units .
Tranche 0 demonstrated a first-ever cross-vendor optical communications experiment, York Space Systems (using Mynaric AG’s optical terminals) and SpaceX successfully demonstrated a cross-vendor laser communications link in low Earth orbit based on SDA’s optical terminal standard version 4.0.
Tranche 1 - status: In Deployment
York Space Systems has delivered the 21 satellites for the Space Development Agency’s imminent Tranche 1 Transport Layer launch to Vandenberg SFB (York Space Systems)
SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying 21 Tranche 1 Transport Layer space vehicles, launched Sept. 10, 2025. (SpaceX)
On September 10th, SpaceX and York Space Systems delivered 21 tranche 1 PWSA transport layer satellites. Tranche 1, the "Initial Warfighting Capability Tranche, " consists of 154 satellites—126 in the Transport Layer and 28 in the Tracking Layer—along with four missile defense demonstration spacecraft. According to Lockheed Martin, the demonstration spacecraft provides Control/Missile Defense (FC/MD) functionality fusing infrared sensors and edge computing. The four demonstration satellites are capable of generating fire control-quality tracks for targeting and hand-off to counter missile systems. Control/Missile Defense (FC/MD) functionality that will be operationally deployed in Tranche 2
Trache 1 is expected to be completed by 2027. At which point the PWSA will be fully operational
Artist concept of York Space PWSA Tranche 1 Transport Satellite (York Space)
Tanche1 Transport Layer Satellites provide both strategic and tactical communications links. Tracking layer satellite IR sensors can detect the intense launch plume of the attacking missiles' boost phase, quickly relaying early warning and tracking handoff data directly to the future Golden Dome over (space-based system), upper (terrestrial theater systems), and lower (terminal defense systems).
Satellite-enabled Link 16 supporting multiple battlespaces (CesiumAstro)
Specifically, the Transport Layers support the following communications links:
Tactical Links: L-band using US/NATO Link-16 secure, encrypted data links. The Transport satellites' L-band transceivers use adaptive array technology to provide multi-beam jamming-resistant communications.
Strategic Links: Ka-Band transceivers provide ground layer links for both PWSA satellite operations and command data transfer, along with high-speed links to military commands and Intelligence agencies
Optical Intersatellite Links: Both the transport and tracking layer satellites have four optical intersatellite terminals based on SDA’s Optical Communications Terminal Standard Version 4.0. Using the SDA NEBULA communications protocol. Optical links are secure, and it is nearly impossible to interfere with or intercept them. The PWSA Optical links create an adaptive mesh communication architecture that is ideal for the rapid establishment and termination of links between LEO satellites as they travel in their orbital planes. Future adaptations of the optical link will also support the ground segment to augment the Ka-Band Links
Details about the capabilities of Tranche 2 tracking layer satellites are extremely limited. It is likely that the Tranche 2 tracking capabilities are derivatives of the Geostationary Orbits (GEO) Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor Satellite (HBTSS) program
As it turns out, the PWSA tracking layer augments the existing Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) system. OPIR is a U.S. Space Force program designed to detect, track, and defend against missile threats, including emerging hypersonic and maneuverable vehicles. The program replaces the existing Space-Based Infrared Systems (SBIRS) and will consist of both geosynchronous (GEO) and polar-orbiting satellites equipped with advanced infrared sensors.
HBTSS (Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor) is a component of the multi-layered OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) satellite system. ( Northrup Grumman)
When completed in 2026, PWSA Tranche 1 will enable the integration of LEO tracking with OPIR GEO and Polar (MEO) capabilities. This will thwart any weaknesses in the US terrestrial radar system and provide an unprecedented early warning detection capability
With Respect to the Golden Dome, PWSA Tranche 1 will be ready for early space-based missile technology trials, along with providing early warning of all missile types, including hypersonic glide vehicles.
Tranche 2 status: Under Contract
Tranche 2 is expected to comprise 270 additional satellites and will bring the PWSA up to full operational capability with a constellation of over 550 satellites. Trance 2 is planned for deployment in 2027. In keeping with SDA’s plan to evolve capability and address emerging threats, Tranche 2 satellites will represent an improvement across all transport and tracking capabilities of Tranche 1 satellites.
Specifically, Tranche 2 will be composed of the following satellite system layers:
Transport Layer: 172 satellites deployed in two phases, consisting of 100 “Alpha” satellites and 72 “Beta” satellites. Details about contracts and specific improvements in transport layers capabilities were unavailable at the time this newsletter was written
Tracking Layer: 54 satellites will be deployed in three sets of 18 satellites, with each set being developed by a different prime contractor. On January 16, 2024, the SDA announced the award of three agreements to deploy satellite early warning/missile tracking (MW/MT) infrared sensors, as well as fire control-quality infrared sensors, to three contractors: L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin, and Sierra Space. These satellites are to be deployed no later than April 2027.
Technology Demonstration Satellites: 20 satellites. Details about contracts and specific improvements planned for the technology were unavailable at the time this newsletter was written. Certainly, improvements in encryption and security of communications links, including optical ground links, alternate launch detection and tracking capabilities such as Synthetic Aperture Radar, and improved edge computing capability are likely candidates for Tranche 2 technology demonstration.
At the end of Tranche 2, the PWSA will be fully operational
Tranche 3 status: Under Definition
Tranche 3 , notional schedule for deployment in 2029/2030, will be the first replenishment mission for the PWSA constellation. Satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) experience atmospheric drag and include periods of increased atmospheric drag due to solar flares and other solar activity. All PWSA satellites have thrusters to perform “station keeping” to maintain a precise orbit and to perform orbital maneuvers to avoid collision with space debris.
PWSA, much like the SpaceX Starlink commercial communications satellite constellation, is designed for planned obsolescence of each Tranche with an operational life of approximately 5 years. At the 5-year end-of-life point, as replacements enter orbital operations, existing satellites are decommissioned and deorbited to burn up in the atmosphere, removing them from orbit as space debris.
Technology and threats evolve so quickly that within 5 years, PWSA satellites would be obsolete anyway. Trance 3 will completely replace PWSA’s Trance 0 and Trance 1 satellites.
The SDA has released some basic information about PWSA Trance 3 as reported by Defense Scoop:
An SDA spokesperson confirmed that approximately 200 satellites will make up Tranche 3 of the PWSA. The constellation is being developed and fielded in batches or “tranches,” and it’s expected to eventually comprise hundreds of space vehicles in low-Earth orbit that carry critical technologies for data transport and missile defense missions.
The Tranche 3 transport layer is being divided into three separate variants — Upsilon, Sigma and Lambda — that each have slightly different capabilities, the same strategy SDA used to develop transport satellites for Tranche 2’s transport layer [i.e., Alpha and Beta releases]. The agency expects to issue up to two awards for each variant, according to the notice.
Final Thoughts on PWSA
Ok, that was a lot to take in. However, thet details give you a feel for the efforts the US Space Force, along with the DoD and Intelligence Agencies, have placed on Deterrence by Situational Awareness and Intelligence, and our evolving Deterrence by Denial missile defenses.
The Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture LEO satellite constellation, combined with terrestrial early warning radar and the GEO/MEO satellites of the Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) system, is set to provide global early warning, tracking, and Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMCC3). The US and our Allies will have unmatched capabilities against our adversaries.
Integration of Golden Dome’s space-based interceptor satellites, the “over layer,” to the existing upper(terrestrial theater systems), and lower (terminal defense systems) layers, while technically challenging, should be straightforward.
In short, PWSA will be operational within a year and ready for the Golden Dome’s space-based interceptors upon their deployment.
Geopolitical Potpourri
Some pithy commentary on world events …
Israel strikes Hamas Leadership in Qatar
On 9 September 2025,
According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel used eight F-15s and four F-35s, each of which fired ballistic missiles into space to target Hamas political leaders in the suburb of Doha, Qatar. The Israeli fighter fired its weapons from the Red Sea, crossing over Saudi Arabian airspace. US space-based satellite early warning sensors detected the heat signatures of the missile launches and determined the missile trajectory would impact in Doha.
The military chain of command informed President Trump, who informed his staff to contact the Qataris and warn them of the impending attack. The warning arrived too late, and the attack succeeded. President Trump claimed he had no warning and expressed public anger at Israel for striking inside Qatar.
There is a problem with this story: Qatar is home to Al Udeid Air Base. The base houses two Patriot Missile defense system batteries. These same batteries engaged and destroyed a barrage of 14 Iranian ballistic missiles that marked the closing action of the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel on July 25th
The Al Udeid Air Base Patriots could have easily detected the Israeli missile attack on Qatar and destroyed the incoming missiles. The Patriot system is staffed and active around the clock. So, something does not add up – SO an alternative explanation would be that President Trump did know in advance. The Patriot batteries were ordered to “stand down,” allowing the attack to proceed unchallenged. All the public “hand ringing” was simply a theater to mollify the public. The media has bought off on the story, so kudos to the President
We will never know if my counterfactual example is true, but not engaging the detected ballistic missiles makes ZERO military sense. I’m just saying!
Russia’s Drone Campaign to Test NATO Air Defenses.
Vladimir Putin seems hell bent on expanding his hostilities to nearby NATO allies when he fired 19 drones into Poland’s airspace on September 9–10. The drones were unarmed decoy drones and caused little damage; however, Polish armed forces were only able to down 4 of the 19 drones … Poland's air defenses were unprepared, and a large armed drone attack could have wreaked havoc. Fortunately, Putin was just playing his intimidation card.
Hungary has also reported a Russian drone incursion a few days later.
The attack seems to be timed as a prelude to the Zapad-2025 joint military drills held by Russia and Belarus starting Tuesday, September 16th.
There is a simple point to be made here: NATO must maintain its air defense at a high alert state; the next attack could be real and not a test
In breaking news, on September 19th, Russian aircraft violated Estonian airspace. Thet Estonian government reported that three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission over the Gulf of Finland and remained for over 10 minutes. NATO scrambled jet interceptors as a precaution, and Estonia has requested NATO Article 4 protection of its skies.
Russian Incursion into Estonian Airspace (Estonian Ministry of Defense)
The fun just never ends with Vladimir Putin!
That’s a wrap for this week …
Up next - Part 3 of our in-depth look at the Golden Dome Missile Defense program – What could possibly go wrong with a sky full of active weapons? Interceptors, station keeping, collision avoidance, operations/maintenance, and satellite end-of–life.
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