Dystopic - The State of the Military and Commercial Space Industry: Silicon Valley Space Week
Published 1 day ago • 12 min read
November 5, 2025
Dystopic Newsletter
The State of the Military and Commercial Space Industry: Silicon Valley Space Week
SVSW – Silicon Valley Space Week – Tech Brief: Golden Dome Technology Challenges (P. Struhsaker)
Last Week was one of my favorite weeks of the year: Silicon Valley Space Week- SVSW. The space industry confab that covers both space innovation and military space applications in two combined symposiums:
Satellite Innovation
MilSat Symposium
I was fortunate to be invited to deliver a technology briefing on Golden Dome Technology Challenges. While you likely could not attend the SVSW, the SatNews team that hosts the event has kindly allowed me to share the video of my lecture. Check it out HERE
If you like to learn more about the Golden Dom Missile defense system, a 3-part in-depth series of Dystopic newsletters is available. These newsletters represent the foundational research for my SVSW lecture:
Want to learn more about the global situation, the ongoing chaos, and what the U.S. and our Allies can do to get things under control? Then check out my new book: How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
A #1 National and International Security new release on Amazon
Do you prefer audiobooks? Fantastic news, the audiobook made in collaboration with British voice actor Michael McMahon is now available!
The book and audiobook are available on Amazon USA HERE and Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major online retailers.
Now back to this week’s dystopic:
The Run Down on Silicon Valley Space Week (SVSW)
Small Satellite Manufacturer SFL Missions booth with NEMO small satellite platform at SVSW (P. Struhsaker)
As we started the conference, two pieces of news seemed to dominate the conversation:
The 10,000th Starlink Satellite was placed in orbit – It is getting crowded in outer space! 2.
The continued government shutdown and its impact on both military and NASA-funded projects and programs, which make up 66% of the space economy. The shutdown impacted the SVSW conference, with several Intelligence, NASA, and Space Force leaders having to cancel.
Still, the show must go on! So let's dig into the details...
The Challenge of a Successful Space Economy: The Sheer Volume of Satellites in Orbit
SVSW kicked off the Small Innovation program with the breaking news that SpaceX had placed its 10,000th satellite in orbit. The successful civilian economy is leading to a soon-to-be very crowded space environment. 70% of the satellites in orbit belong to Starlink, and Starlink expects to double that over the next 10 years at least. Starlink is not alone. China's Quianfan— "Thousand Sails" —led by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) expects to field a competitive system, as does Amazon’s Kuiper. Additional operators include Europe's OneWeb, along with optical and SAR (Radar) earth observation satellite constellations from Iceye, Capella, Hawkeye360, Vantor (formerly Maxtar), and Plant, among others.
If that was not enough, factor in Dolden Dome space-based interceptors and the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) satellites, which would account for another 4,000 to 10,000 satellites. China is sure to have its own version of the Golden Dome to match. There are
Satellite Mega Constellation (Via Satellite)
serious knock-on effects and technology developments that will have to happen to make this work. So here are a few of the major SVSW discussions on what the satellite and space industry will need in the future:
Collision Avoidance: Collisions between satellites and between satellites and launch vehicles are already a major issue. Today, every satellite in the Starlink fleet must undergo 35 maneuvers each year to avoid collisions – that is, over 350,000 orbital changes per year. It's going to be much worse. The knock-on effects include the need for satellites themselves to have space self-awareness. In addition, all satellites will need thrusters and larger fuel budgets. You can read more about the growing Space debris problem in a article I wrote for SatNews, “The Growing Danger of Space Debris.”
Ground-Based Space Surveillance Tracking: The primary sources of satellite orbital data and collision warnings are ground-based radar and optical tracking systems operated by the Space Force and NOAA’s Office of Space Commerce. The Space Surveillance Network (SSN), run by the 18th Space Defense Squadron, supports government and military users. Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS), developed by NOAA, provides a civilian and private-user surveillance system for collision avoidance, satellite tracking, and analytics, and has been awarded to Slingshot Aerospace, LEO Labs, and a host of additional civilian companies. Today, these systems track roughly 30,000 items in orbit, which are 10cm in diameter or larger. In a decade, both the SSN and TraCSS systems will need at least a 4-fold increase in tracking capabilities.
The Decommissioning Problem: What goes up must come down. All satellite operators are required to retire their satellites from orbit, “deorbit,” at the end of their lifespans. The average satellite has a lifespan in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of 5 years, so a fifth of every satellite constellation's “birds” will be deorbited from space every year. Under controlled conditions, of course. Today, Starlink deorbits two satellites a day. In 10 years, 20,000 satellites will be decommissioned each year, which is nearly 55 artificial shooting stars a day. What could possibly go wrong – like a collision with a commercial aircraft, for example. The knock-on effect … what is the pollution to the atmosphere from spacecraft burning up on reentry in these numbers?
The Satellite Replacement Problem: What goes down must be replaced— you guessed it—the inverse of the decommissioning problem exists. SpaceX, Rocket Labs, Firefly Aerospace, Blue Origin, and other space launch companies will have an endless supply of customers. The key to the success of any of these launch vehicle companies will be mastering launcher reuse and catching up with SpaceX. That is especially true for the Chinese if they intend to compete in the space economy
Space Port Proliferation: To support the launch of 20,000 satellites per year, an expansion of spaceport capacity for vehicle assembly and launch is required. There are 35 spaceports and launch facilities worldwide that can launch satellites or spacecraft into suborbital, orbital, and beyond orbits. This is expected to double over the next 10 years, with much of the expansion driven by the addition of launch pads at existing spaceports. Nearly a third of the spaceports are based in the US. 53% of all space vehicle launches into orbit were from US-based space ports.
Operational Space Ports in 2025 (Go Astronomy)
AI is needed everywhere: Ground tracking and spacecraft situational self-awareness are already using AI. AI will be used in Earth Observations satellites to preprocess image, radar, and other observation data. Planet reports that their systems already send down a Terabit a second and that they are working with Nvidia to perform pre-processing and data reduction on the EO satellite to reduce bandwidth. LeoLabs, an operator of ground-based space observation radars, has replaced its algorithmic tracking with an AI-based algorithm, achieving 20% higher efficiency and avoiding the need to add a major radar to its networks. The SVSW conference outlined numerous examples of AI adoption aimed at reducing or eliminating “the human in the loop” in day-to-day operations.
The Communications Bottleneck: Optical interconnects between spacecraft are now standard. The amount of spectrum and the capabilities of RF links are being outstripped. SpaceX (for its Starlink constellation), Amazon's Kuiper, Telesat, SpaceLink, Viasat, and BridgeComm are all developing laser up-and downlinks despite issues with cloud cover. These companies are all betting that space-based cross-links to multiple gateways (i.e., ground-based communication stations) can defeat the limitation of cloud cover at any one earth-based data gateway. Satellite constellations will route around cloud cover in real time – clever, eh? Even better, they can use real-time weather satellite images to help stand up a new link before breaking an existing one!
These are just a few of the topics and issues addressed in the Satellite Innovation portion of the SVSX conference. Underlying this incredible expansion in satellite proliferation are the supply chain and production capabilities, as well as supply chain security, that enable it. This is true for both commercial and military satellites and constellations.
A View of Military, Intelligence, and Security From SVSW
The second half of SVSX was devoted to the MilSat Symposium, a forum of civilian and military speakers and panels, which, for the most part, focused on
Cyber Threats
Golden Dome & PWSA, the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture
The Left of Time zero problem – Civilian and government Earth Observation and geospatial data for threat identification and tracking
Hardening satellite systems from intentional attack
Let’s look at the principal takeaways from the symposium
The Cyber Threat: Whether civilian or military, the security of space networks and communications is a serious concern. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, the incidents of both electronic warfare (Jamming and cyber attacks) have skyrocketed in the areas bordering on Ukraine and Russia. Here are just a few of the ongoing incidents :
In 2022, a cyberattack by Russian Intelligence (GRU) on the Viasat KA-SAT network brought down communications in Ukraine but had wide effects across Central Europe.
Ongoing, GPS jamming and spoofing along Russia's northern and western borders, particularly in the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic Circle. The interference has at times been so severe that in 2024, a Finnish airline temporarily suspended flights to Tartu, Estonia, due to the persistent interference. interference
Military and Intelligence Satellites are increasingly upgrading their communications using highly directional beamforming phased-array RF antennas and robust anti-jam communications waveforms, or tight-beamed optical links. TT&C – Telemetry, Tracking, and Control are at the heart of satellite operations. PWSA and Golden Dome missile defense will have software-defined communications systems that enable continuous improvements to counter cyberattacks and jamming. After all, could you imagine if an enemy was able to hack the Golden Dome TT&C and start using our own defense missiles against us or render the system inoperable at a critical moment?
Golden Dome & PWSA - Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. Over half of the MilSat Symposium was dedicated to topics surrounding these two systems.
PWSA is a satellite constellation for over 500 communications and tracking satellites that provide early warning, launch detection, target tracking, communications, and C2BMC functions (Command and Control Battle Management and Communications). Think of it as the eyes, ears, and brains of a missile defense system. PWSA will be completed in the early 203s and part of it is functional today.
In the MilSat context, the Golden Dome is the space-based missile defense satellites associated with a wider ground-based, space-layered missile defense. Details about the Space Command system have been sparse up to this point. During my lecture, I took an attendees' poll on the expected size of Golden Done. The consensus was that the system would cost $1 trillion, have 6,000 to 10,000 satellites, and include a significant ground-based defense as part of the layered defense.
Given the short time frame announced by President Trump, Much of the system will be based on proven anti-missile capabilities in production, with only moderate modifications. In a second consensus, Golden Domw will be a practical iterative expansion of the existing system and not developed from the ground up over a long time frame. A basic system must be up and running in 3 years, “before President Trump leaves office,” as a retired Space Force General put it.
The Left of Time zero problem. Based on the limits of physics and operational analysis, the space-based interceptors in Golden Dome have to be released once a tracking solution is determined. A tracking solution takes 45 seconds, leaving only 120 seconds for an interceptor to reach its target. Targeting data from US reconnaissance intelligence agencies (NRO, NGA, NPIC, NSA, & DIA) must be available in real time to track and rank the severity of the threat posed by the attacking missile (nuclear or non-nuclear). Thet decision to fire cannot have “human in the loop” reaction time.
This entire discussion sparked lively debate across several sessions, ranging from how to make highly sensitive, time-critical targeting data available to whether an AI system could be trusted for defense intercept release. One thing is certain with Golden Dome, at a minimum, the boost phase defense will have to operate without a human in the loop – and so the machine age begins.
Threats to Satellite Systems - The Counter Space Threat Continuum (P. Struhsker)
Hardening Satellite Systems from Intentional Attack. Russia is already subjecting US commercial communications satellite (Starlink & Visat) to Electronic Warfare. GPS is being spooked, Earth Observation Satellites (EO) have been temporarily blinded by ground-based optical laser “dazzlers,” and SAR radar satellites have experienced jamming. Adding to the threat, both Russia and China are readying space-based weapon systems. Of course, the US is developing its own offensive weapons and defensive strategies. Given this background, it is little wonder that defensive satellite operations were a topic discussed in multiple sessions of the MilSat Symposium.
Hardening of Satellites, in particular, offered some interesting concepts being tested and deployed for Space Domain defense:
Coatings that protect the main body of a satellite from laser strikes or kinetic strikes (shrapnel for an anti-missile strike)
The aforementioned satellite situational awareness, both autonomous and from ground tracking, and orbital changes to avoid collisions or hostile close pass enemy satellite operations
Retractable solar panels and antennas for protection during an attack event
Rapid replenishment of destroyed satellites in hours or a day, not weeks and months
Deploy satellites in part of the swarm dedicated to operations and others to defense
Final Thoughts
We are in the middle of a New Space Race, along with a New Cold War. So far, the US and our Allies are winning the New Space Race. We have a lot of work to get on the winning side of the New Cold War. I hope a few of these insights from Silicon Valley Space Week give you an appreciation for the breadth of technology and the issues our scientists and engineers face.
In Other News
AI chipset market leader Nvidia announces Quantum Computing Link
A consensus among leading computer architects holds that the future of computing lies in a hybrid quantum-classical computer architecture. The architecture will leverage the best of both types of computing power and split workloads across processing environments to optimize processing power.
Nvidia Announces NVQlink to interconnect Quantum and Classical Supercomputers
Clearly, Nvidia’s announcements at their annual confab, the GPU Technology Conference, along with signals that trade friction between the US and China was reduced at the Xi–Trump summit in Busan, Korea, impressed the stock markets. Nvidia became the first company with a valuation of $5 trillion!
Russia Tests Poseidon Underwater Nuclear-Powered Autonomous Torpedo – Trump Responds by Resuming Nuclear Testing
Poseidon, a Russian nuclear-armed nuclear-powered torpedo (Naval News)
After 5 years of hype and threats by Russia about the Poseidon autonomous nuclear Torpedo, earlier this week, Russia finally tested a prototype Poseidon with the a working nuclear power source. It is not clear whether the power source is a true reactor, like the 1960s Project 601A built by General Electric, or a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG, RITEG), a type of nuclear battery that uses an array of thermocouples to generate electricity from the heat of radioisotope decay.
While this was just a test and Poseidon is not operational, it is a provocation and escalation by Russia, likely as a response to the US’s more hardened stance on the War with Ukraine.
Nuclear threats and brinksmanship are not the sort of diplomacy anyone hoped for to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet these new nuclear systems are further proof that Putin is unwilling to negotiate peace in Ukraine and will use the threat of wider war to hold off military assistance from Ukraine.
It is unclear if these MTI satellites are part of the PWSA satellite system or represent a separate parallel system. In either case, SpaceX leads the way in launch and satellite technology.
That’s a wrap for this week …
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
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