March 10, 2026

Dystopic Newsletter

Epic Fury Exposes Complete Failure of Russian and Chinese Air Defense Systems

S400 Russian long-range Air Defense system destroyed by Ukraine (Kyiv Post). A series of equally destructive strikes has decimated Iran’s Russian S300 and Chinese HQ9 air defense missile systems.

Introduction - It’s All About Air Superseniority

By the time this Dystopic newsletter is published, EPIC FURY, the joint campaign by the US and Israel against Iran, will be in its second week of action.

Despite the convoluted reasons the Trump administration has provided for striking Iran, the ever-evolving definition of the exit strategy, and the feckless, craven pessimism of the Washington political elite and a majority of allies, the military campaign is being executed flawlessly. The Wall Street Journal opinion piece, “The Washington Iran War Pessimists,” mockingly notes that media coverage and Washington elites portray events as if the US were losing and that, rather than cheering failure, we could wait and see how the war goes.

This is Dystoic! We are not here to hash out the politics, kibitz on the war's end game, or promote a political viewpoint. Dystopic is here to look at “The Technology Behind Today's News.”

Today, that story is the establishment of complete Air Superiority over Iran in less than 48 hours! That is the focus of this week's newsletter.

You may ask, so what? Who cares? Why is air superiority important?

It is incredibly important. Once air superiority is established, the US is no longer restricted to using stealth aircraft and expensive long-range precision weapons, of which we have limited supplies. With air superiority, conventional fighter bombers (F15 Strike Eagles, F18 Hornets, and F16 Falcons), heavy bombers ( B1B and B52), and tactical attack aircraft (A10 Warthog, Apache attack helicopters) can escalate the tempo and ferocity of attacks with conventional precision missiles and bombs. The US has a nearly inexhaustible supply of precision weapons.

With air superiority, Operation EPIC FURY will move from pinpoint strategic strikes, to freely roaming and destroying targets of opportunity, and massed bombardment of selected targets. As Secretary of War, Hegseth noted in his March 4, 2026, briefing:

So how did the US and Israel we achieve Air Superiority in under 48 hours? Let’s dig in ...

EPIC FURY: A Master Class in SEAD, Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses

We have come a long way from the first “Wild Weasel” anti-air defense mission, which, according to the National Museum of Air Force History, started in June 1966. F-105F Wild Weasel aircraft arrived in Thailand flying with the 335th TFW (Tactical Fighter Wing) at Takhli and the 388th TFW at Korat.

These first Wild Weasel F-105Fs carried radio-frequency/RADAR detection sensors and were armed with SHRIKE anti-radar missiles, along with a heavy load of bombs or rockets. The SHRIKE missile’s range was well within the lethal range of the Russian SA-2 anti-aircraft missile systems used by the Vietnamese. Pilots had to execute extremely low-level, below-RADAR penetration strikes to release the SHRIKE missiles at their targets. Something only the best pilots with nerves of steel could accomplish as a single pilot took on a single air defense system, “mano y mano.” Despite the extreme difficulty and danger to the pilots, Wild Weasel missions have developed a track record of success and continue to this day thanks to extensive technological and operational upgrades.

Today, the Wild Weasel missions are called SEAD/DEAD, Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses, and involve both suppression and destruction of enemy radar and missile systems. SEAD/DEAD missions are much more elaborate than those carried out 60 years ago. Air defense systems are layered and overlapping, connected by communications links to give commanders in the field a total view and coordination across an entire country or theater of war, as we see in Iran and the Middle East, respectively.

At the onset of EPIC FURY, Iran deployed a combination of Russian, Chinese, and indigenous air defense systems. The following Russian and Chinese Air Defense systems:

• Russian S200 (last generation) medium-range air defense with a range of over 300 Km
• Russian S300 (current generation) air defense with a range of over 200 Km
• Chinese HQ-9 air defense derived from Russia’s S300 air defense systems with similar range of 200 Km.
• Russian S400 "Triumph" While not a part of Iran’s air defense, Ukraine faces the S400 long-range air defense system, which, like the US THAAD (Theater High Altitude Air Defense), can counter ballistic missiles in addition to drones, aircraft, cruise missiles, and standard missiles. The S400 has been susceptible to Ukrainian saturation attacks using drones and US ATACM missiles.

As data from the CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) illustrates in the following diagrams, air defenses are layered and overlapping. Critical data links between air defense centers give the national command authority a complete view and target control and handoff between the various localized air defense systems. Each of these links is integrated into Iran’s C4I, Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence, system for battle management over Iran’s airspace.

As shown in the following diagram by DEFENSE UPDATE, the Russian S300 systems ( and the Chinese HQ-9) is comprised of 4 components:

• Long-Range Acquisition Radar: detects targets up to 300Km distant and performs a threat assessment based on estimated impact point or flight path vector toward a critical location. An S-300 system can track ~100 targets; a Chinese HQ-9 system’can track 50 to 100 targets. Meanwhile, A US patriot can track in excess of 100 targets
• Command Post: Analyzes long-range targets and determines which targets to engage based on the level of threat. These targets are handed off to the Engagement Radar System. In addition, the Command Post is integrated into the national/theater C4I Battle management system, which can assign a target to an alternate air defense system for targeting. Should the C4 I communication links or central command be disabled or destroyed, the S300 systems can act independently.
• Engagement Radar: Russian 30N6 (Flap Lid) Radar provides precision tracking to provide initial and in-flight target trajectory updates to the S-300 radar-guided missile selected to engage the target. An S-300 can engage 6 targets simultaneously; a Chinese HQ-9 system's HT-233 Radar can engage 9 to 12 targets simultaneously; A US Patriot system can engage 9 targets simultaneously.
• Launch Vehicles (“launchers” ): Carry and launch interceptor missiles at designated targets. A typical S300 system will have between 4 and 6 missiles per launcher.

The US Patriot system uses a single Acquisition and Engagement Radar as opposed to the two required by the S-300 and HQ-9 systems. In general, the Patriot’s AN/MPQ-65 phased array radar has superior tracking and targeting capabilities compared to its Russian and Chinese counterparts. This comes at the expense of the Patriots' detection range being slightly shorter (150 km vs 200 km). Patriot missiles are “Hit to Kill” and have multiple intelligent sensors and terminal self-guidance capabilities. S-300 and HQ-9 used proximity fragmentation warheads, which scatter secondary debris over a wide area, endangering people and property near the point of enemy target engagement.

So, now that we have a better understanding of Iran's S-300 and HQ-9 systems, how do we counter them?

The US Air Superiority Playbook

The US gains Air Superiority by first destroying or incapacitating the disgnated enemy's Engagement Radar, followed by the Command Post and Acquisition Radar. At this point, the missile batteries are useless and can be destroyed at will in later engagements with more cost-effective short-range weapons.

The US and Israel used a combination of stealth, long-range standoff weapons, electronic warfare, and massed coordinated strikes to overwhelm and strike at Iran's air defense while protecting our highly vulnerable pilots. Today, just like “Wild Weasel” missions of the Vietnam Era, the US Navy and Air Force pilots engaged in the SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) are running into the jaws of the well-armed enemy. It’s a gutsy job for gutsy pilots

Here are the Details …

SEAD is the critical component in an overall coordinated first strike. Ahead of the first strike comes reconnaissance and mission planning. The “5Ps – Proper Planning Prevents Pisspoor Performance.”

Reconnaissance:

US EO (optical/infrared Earth Observation), SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), and ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) intelligence satellites provide precise geolocation of targets in the master battle plan for the operation, with an emphasis on locating all air defense systems. As some targets, including air defense targets, are mobile, real-time mid-operation retargeting and vectoring of some attacking forces must be anticipated as part of the plan

Mission Planning and Coordinated Execution:

A first strike can contains 100s of targets to be attacked in phases with a very specific timetable. If a squadron of F/A-18 fighter bombers were to enter Iranian airspace prior to the destruction of a given set of Iranian air defenses, the F/A-18s would be “lambs for the slaughter.” Different weapons travel at different velocities over different ranges to their designated target. Individual and groups of missiles/aircraft are placed in “strike packages” designed to execute electronic warfare, kinetic strikes, or a combination of both against a given target(s) at a given time.

Overall, the plan is to blind the enemy and gain localized air superiority (i.e., uncontested access to airspace) en masse by overwhelming the enemy's defense. The opening move in a US first strike is Cyber and Electronic Warfare.

Cyber (Aimed at Communications Infrastructure)

At the onset of the first strike, the US will unleash a cyber attack on the enemy’s infrastructure. The focus of the cyber attack is to disrupt the enemy's communications and C4I battle management systems. The US will also use “barrage jamming” to interfere with backup radio and satellite communications as part of an opening Electronic Warfare campaign

The net effect is to isolate each enemy defense system and deny the enemy an integrated and coherent view of the entire attack underway. This is exactly what unfolded at the beginning of Operation EPIC FURY.

Shortly after the cyber attack kicked off, the US Navy’s EA-18 Growler electronic warfare fighter/attack aircraft and F-35 stealth aircraft arrived on station near their designated targets to begin the Electronic Warfare campaign in earnest.

Electronic Warfare, Stealth, and Standoff Weapons

The US Navy uses hunter-killer tactics to destroy enemy air defenses, employing F-35 Lightning Stealth and F/A-18 Super Hornets, as well as the specialized EA-18G Growler electronic warfare variant of the F/A-18. The F-35 acts as a "sensor-fused Hunter," identifying radar targets and enabling F/A-18s to destroy them with AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles).

The EA-18G’s work alongside the F-35 to jam enemy radar and electronic activity (communications). Armed with the AN/ALQ-249 Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) to disrupt the middle and low frequency bands of Iranian radar, the EA-18’s "active blinding" prevents the HQ-9 and S-300 radar systems from tracking or locking onto incoming aircraft. As the EA-18G’s enter hostile airspace, they initially release a number of ADM-160 MALD (Miniature Air-Launched Decoys) that saturate S-300 and HQ-9 radar screens with "ghost" aircraft formations. The mass of “ghost” targets forces Iranian operators to activate their radar engagement systems, exposing their positions to the F35 “Hunters.” The EA-18Gs then activate their AN/ALQ-249 Next Generation Jammers.

The DM-160 MALD miniature air-launched decoy is a low-cost, expendable air-launched craft that deceives air defense systems while keeping pilots and aircraft out of harm’s way. The programmable weapon duplicates the combat flight profiles and signatures of U.S. and allied aircraft. S-300 and HQ-9 systems have target-tracking limitations of ~100 aircraft. The false decoy signals overwhelm the processing power of these systems until the EA-18G’s power jamming takes over.

The MALD decoys for the Iranian S-300 and HQ-9 systems to illuminate and track false targets, giving the F-35s the ability to identify and hand targeting information off to F/A-18 Super Hornets. The Hornets carry the powerful AGM-88E HARM anti-radiation missiles with a stand-off range of 150 Km and a velocity of Mach 3. The HARM missiles obliterate the S-300 and HQ-9 radars, rendering the entire air defense battery inoperative.

In addition to AGM-88E HARM, which cannot be carried by the F35, the US Navy just deployed the new AGM-88G AARGM-ER Extended Range HARM missile The new missile is based on the existing guidance section and warhead of the AGM-88E in a redesigned airframe with a new propulsion section which doubles the missile’s range to 300Km and increases the missile velocity to Mach 4. The new airframe allows internal carriage in the F-35. As the F/A18 hornet is gradually replaced in the US carrier fleet. Armed with AGM-88G AARGM-ER, F35 can take the role of both Hunter and Killer.

The bottom line is that in under 48 hours, the Iranian S-300 andHQ-9 air defense systems were overwhelmed and destroyed by superior US weapons and tactics based on a combination of cyber, electronic warfare, stealth, and HARM missiles.

As former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted on Fox News Sunday on February 30^th:

If you’d like to learn more about Electronic Warfare and US tactics, the National Security Journal provides insight into the US Navy’s FA18-Growler EW aircraft, while the Geopolitical Monitor explains the role of the F35 Lighting’s role as a sensor platform to locate, detect, and coordinate strikes against the air defense radars.

Chinese and Russian Air Defense Systems, A Historic String of Combat Failures

The 48-hour destruction of Iran’s air defense stands as one of the most colossal military failures on record. However, this is not the first instance of S300/S400 and HQ-9/16 failures. It is the latest in a series of failures Rusian and Chinese air defense systems in actual combat.

APRIL 2024 IRAN S-300

Starting April 19, 2024, the Institute for Science and International Security reported that Israel conducted a precise airstrike near Isfahan, Iran, targeting an S-300PMU2 air defense system, specifically damaging or destroying a 30N6E "flap-lid" radar. The strike, a retaliatory measure for Iran's missile attack on April 13, 2024 aimed to disable the system's ability to track targets and interfere with further Israeli operations

The Dystopic Newsletter “A Lesson In Deterrence – Israeli strikes against Iran's Air Defense” provided a detailed breakdown of this operation if you’d like further details on this event.

November 2024 Kursk, Crimea, Belgorod

As reported by United 24 Media, in 2024, Ukrainian forces actively targeted and destroyed multiple Russian S-400 "Triumf" air defense systems in occupied Crimea and Russian territory, utilizing ATACMS missiles and long-range drones. Key strikes occurred in Kursk (Nov 2024), Crimea (Apr/Nov 2024), and Belgorod (2024). These attacks significantly degraded Russia's air defense capabilities by destroying critical radar systems and launchers.

The Ukrainian tactic of using swarms of drones to overwhelm the S-400 tracking systems, followed by a rapid attacks with ATACMS missiles proved effective.

MAY 2025 Pakistan

As reported by India Today and Japan Times, during India’s Operation Sindoor, the brief 4-day war between Pakistan and India, from May 7^th to May 10^th, 2025, Chinese-supplied HQ-9/P air defense systems reportedly failed to intercept Indian missiles and drones. Specifically Indian BrahMos supersonic and French SCALP cruise missiles, and Israeli Harop drones.

The HQ-9/P system, intended to protect critical areas in Pakistan, failed to detect or destroy incoming threats, casting doubt on the reliability of Chinese defense technology.

June 2025, Iran

According to the Foreign Policy Research Institute:​

January 2026, Venezuela

As reported by the Times of India and Ukraine’s Lviv Herald, at the opening of Operation Absolute Resolve in January 2026, Venezuela's integrated air defense network of Chinese JY-27A anti-stealth radars and HQ-9 missiles was neutralized. The JY-27A radars were reportedly "blinded" by EA-18G Growler electronic attacks, failing to detect advanced F-35 stealth fighters. The HQ-9 SAMs stayed "mute" and failed to achieve any locks or fire at low-flying MH-60 Blackhawk and MH-47 Chinook helicopters during the raid on Caracas.

Some Analysts noted that over 60% of Venezuela's Chinese radars were offline prior to the raid due to a lack of spare parts and technical support from Beijing. However, as Operation EPIC FURY so clearly showed, the same tactic completely eliminated Iran’s national air defense

February 2026, Operation EPIC FURY.

China & Russia again reconstitute Iran’s air defense with new S-300 and HQ-9 systems with the same result; the systems are destroyed.

China, You Have a Problem! Your Air Defense Systems Don’t Work!

So far, the Russian and Chinese systems have hit next to nothing. Not a single Indian, Israeli, or US aircraft or missile has been hit in over 5 major air engagements.
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Leaves a serious question for the Chinese:

If your air defenses failed in Pakistan, Venezuela, and massively failed in Iran, what would happen if you used force to take Taiwan
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As it turns out, the Chinese PLA uses a variant of the HQ-9, designated HHQ-9, in their Type 052C, Type 052D/DL, and Type 055 destroyers.

• Type 055 Destroyer (Renhai-class Cruiser): 112 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells, capable of operating HHQ-9B and other missiles. As of March 2026, at least 10-12+ ships are reported, with more under construction.
• Type 052D/DL Destroyer (Luyang III-class): 64-cell VLS, utilizing HHQ-9 series missiles, and is the most numerous "blue-water" combatant. There are 25-30+ active ships as of January 2026, with 3-4 being built per year.
• Type 052C Destroyer (Luyang II-class): 48-cell VLS, utilizing the older HHQ-9A/navalized HQ-9. There are 6 ships in this class, all operational

Considering the atrocious performance of the HQ-9, and by extension, the Chinese PLA Navy HHQ-9 systems, these destroyers would be sitting ducks ripe for the slaughter. The Chinese PLA Navy Aircraft carriers, troop transports, and supply transports would be left vulnerable to attack by US, Taiwan, and Japanese forces.

According to an analysis by the US Naval Institute, Chinese Type 055 destroyers use a dual-band radar system integrated into their masts to enhance stealth and situational awareness. The primary radar is the Type 346B Dragon Eye, a 4-panel S-band Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) system, complemented by 4 smaller X-band panels for high-resolution tracking, navigation, and targeting. These systems are meant to emulate US Navy Aegis SPY radars.

Perhaps these tracking and engagement radars have improved performance over their land based counter parts. Then again, perhaps not. Initiating naval combat with the US is a massive gamble, given US warships armed with the battle-tested Aegis Weapon System and SM-3 missiles. Add to that carrier-based F35, F/A-18, and EA-18 Growler aircraft, and an array of decoys, HARM, and anti-ship missiles escorts.

Chinese military doctrine is based on launching a massive missile attack against US, Taiwanese, and Japanese forces and bases at the onset of combat operations to take Taiwan. However, if the US and our allies can take out 90% of an incoming attack, while China would only be capable of intercepting 10% of our counterattack, even China would eventually lose air superiority over a handful of days, just like Iran.
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China has very weak anti-submarine operations … as if the failure of air defenses on the land and on China's PLA Navy capital ships is a problem, imagine the “terror from the deep” from the US Navy nuclear submarine force.

Perhaps the reason President Xi has fired all of China’s top generals and admirals is that the procurement corruption and complete failure of the Chinese weapons system in real combat conditions make the invasion of Taiwan impossible.

Learn More About Deterrence

In this Dystopic, I have barely touched the surface of the broad concepts of air defence and deterrence by denial/protection. This is one of a series of components of an extensive deterrence regime. I specifically wrote, How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence as a comprehensive overview and primer on the subject

In Other News

US Sinks Iranian Navy Ship in the Indian Ocean with a Torpedo for the First Time Since 1945

In the first such US Navy action since the end of World War 2 in 1945, on Wednesday, March 4^th, the US DoD announced that an unnamed US Navy Nuclear Attack Submarine had sunk the Iranian Moudge-class frigate DINA in the Indian Ocean.

According to The War Zone and Naval News, a single US Mark 48 torpedo armed with a 650 lb torpex (torpedo explosive) warhead struck near the rear engine room section of the DINA. The DINA quickly sank from the stern. Initial estimates stated there were 80 survivors. Later reports stated that fewer than 40 of the crew of 189 had survived.

The US is continuing a campaign to completely eliminate Iran’s Navy and Missile forces to eliminate Iranian threats to the critical Strait of Hormuz, which separates the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea. 20% of the world's oil, roughly 21 million barrels a day, flows through the Strait of Hormuz, much of which supplies China and Western Pacific nations.

Images from the attacking US submarine’s periscope cameras, released by the US DoD, provide compelling evidence of how effective US Navy weapons are in combat.

US Deploys LUCAS (Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System) Attack Drones for the First Time

In another first, Air Force Technology reports that Operation Epic Fury marked the combat introduction of LUCAS, the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System. This is the first in a new family of long-range “Kamikaze Drones.” Designed and built by SpetreWorks, a manufacturer of long-range drone platforms, LUCAS is a reverse-engineered and highly improved version of the Iranian Shahed-136 loitering munition. It features advanced AI for automated target recognition, mesh-network swarming (up to 100 units), and anti-jamming resilience.

LUCAS made its combat debut on February 28, 2026, as part of Task Force Scorpion Strike (TFSS), the first dedicated U.S. one-way attack drone squadron

It is ironic that Iran is on the receiving end of their own technology concept in the US-Iran War.

LUCAS is the first in a series of "attritable" (throwaway) systems , as part of the US military's strategy shift to high-volume, low-cost technology weapons designed to saturate enemy defenses. The system is designed for "affordable mass," allowing the U.S. to deploy large numbers of expendable munitions rather than relying solely on multi-million dollar missiles. At an estimated $35,000 a unit, LUCAS can be used in greater volume than the workhorse US Tomahawk cruise missile at $2.5 million each.

Lucas has a range of up to 2000 km with a 50Kg warhead, having at least twice the firepower of a US Hellfire missile. A cruising speed of 180 km/hour with a terminal velocity on final approach of 300 km/hour and can loiter for up to 6 hours. Using swarm tactics, LUCAS is a cost-effective primary or secondary strike weapon.

That’s a wrap for this week …

Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News

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