After a second ineffective mass missile attack against Israel, Israel has responded, for a second time, with a calibrated and restrained counterattack using waves of F35 stealth strike fighters to demolish Iran's Russian-made S300 air defense systems. Iran's air defenses are almost completely obliterated, and should they choose further escalation – Israel can attack them at will. Will this finally deter Iran?
Before we continue - A quick update on my book, "How the Hell Didi We Get Here?"
We are heading to the pre-sale of my book in December. This week I have to shoot footage for a promotional video. I completed the script but will have to set up and execute my "shoot". I'm also getting feedback on my book from by Beta Reader Group - hats off to them - feedback is a gift!
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Now Back to the Deterrence Lesson ...
Let's look at the two major Iran-Israel direct military engagements this year
The First Iranian Attach and Israeli Response
April 13, 2024, Iran made good on its threat to avenge the deaths of 11 senior commanders by a precision Israeli air strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria. Dubbed "Operation True Promise," Iran launched a disproportional direct attack on Israel, a massive salvo of 170 missiles and 120 drones.
In what can only be viewed as a master class in Deterrence By Defense (missile defense) 99% of Iran's massive missile and drone attacks were intercepted and destroyed by coordinated Israeli, U.S., and allied missile defense systems.
Friday, April 19, 2024, Israel responded to Iran's massive attack with a pinpoint strike against a single target, a Russian-made S300 missile defense system located at the 8th Shekari Air Base in northwest Esfahan, Iran. (See the commercial satellite images before and after the attack). The S-300 system provided air defense for Iran's Esfahan and Natanz nuclear weapons development sites. Israel has sent a clear signal that it could follow up and destroy these nuclear sites at a time of their choosing. Unfortunately, Iran did not deescalate.
The Second Iranian Attach and Israeli Response
On October 1, Iran carried out a second large-scale missile attack against Israel in response to Israel's assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan The strike, dubbed "True Promise 2," involved about 180 ballistic missiles, including several of Iran's newest hypersonic missiles. The second attack was as ineffective as the first attack. Over 95% of the rockets were intercepted and destroyed by coordinated Israeli, U.S., and allied missile defense systems.
On Saturday, October 26, 2024, Israel struck back. While details from the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) have been limited, it appears the IDF carried out several waves of attacks using F35 Stealth strike fighters and drones. The attack targeted Iran's weapons plants and air defenses. By all reports, Israel destroyed a vast majority of Iran's Russian-made S300 air defense system across the country, guarding government, nuclear, oil production, and military sites.
For a second time, Israel's calibrated response made a specific point to Iran's leadership: Iranian air defenses are no match to Israel's stealth fighters and advanced standoff weapons. It was also clear that if Iran's most highly protected site were vulnerable, Israel would be entirely capable of pinpoint attacks on Iran's leadership.
The Deterrence Lesson
Deterrence, at its most basic level, is the threat of force discouraging an opponent from taking an unwelcome action. This can be achieved through the threat of retaliation (deterrence by destruction) or by denying the opponent's war aims (deterrence by denial). We are at a point in the Middle East where deterrence has completely failed. Iran and its proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, are initiating ever-increasing cycles of violence. Israel continues to demonstrate its superior military capabilities in both deterrence by defense, with its anti-missile system, and deterrence by destruction, with its seemingly unstoppable counterattacks on Iran. Considering the size of Iran's attacks aimed at harming both civilian and military targets, Israel's counterattacks have been restrained and targeted at degrading Iran's defensive capabilities.
Israel is attempting to deescalate the violence engulfing the Middle East. Given the destruction of Iran's air defense system, will Iran stand down? So far, they have continued to retaliate and escalate. Thankfully, Iran and Israel are 1000 miles apart – other than Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, a war between the two is limited to the air. That in itself, favors deescalation at some point. Time will tell.
Until Next week ...
