Dystopic Greenland, The U.S. Inauguration, and More
Published about 1 year ago • 6 min read
January 18, 2025
Dystopic Newsletter
Greenland, The U.S. Inauguration, and More
The Norther Sea Route - The future of U.S., European, and Northern Asia Shipping
The Arctic Ocean is perpetually covered with ice for most of the year and is relegated, for the most part, to the domain of nuclear submarines traversing under the polar ice sheets. As global temperatures rise, shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean will expand from a minor shipping lane open for a few months during later summer through early fall to one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Global shipping through these sea lanes has doubled in the last 10 years as global warming lengthened the duration of late summer navigation to benefit all nations surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
You can't read or listen to the news in the last week without hearing about the U.S. buying Greenland or aggressively prodding Canada to secure its borders or else become the "51st state." The Trumpian rhetoric is amusing as a salvo to open negotiations; however, the intention of the U.S. is serious. With a New Cold War gearing up, "the North" of North America has transitioned from a backwater ice sheet to a key defense staging area to rebuild our deterrence.
This Dystopic will unpack the facts to better understand what all the fuss is about among other musings.
But first, a quick update on my book …
I've just started Revision Editing - which for me is the start of a 3rd draft of the book. However, it is much more than improving the content and cleaning up my editorial mistakes. All my citations are being checked and proofed. The books graphics are being corrected and, in some cases, redrawn by a professional graphics artist.
For those of you how made a presale purchase - A few final revision chapters will be heading your way ...
Now, Back to our Dysopic …
Greenland and Northern Canada have become a focus of U.S. strategic and economic concern for three reasons: Energy, Mineral Resources, and a New Global Shipping Route. Let's review a few specifics:
Energy: A 2008 report released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Arctic holds around 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 44 billion barrels of liquid natural gas, and 90 billion barrels of oil—the vast majority of these being offshore. There will be contention for those resources. The Trump Administration intends to use energy as a weapon. Increasing energy supplies will lower energy costs and boost North America's and our allies' economies. Lower energy prices will strangle Iran and Russia's energy export-dependent economies. The exercise of soft power economic deterrence at its finest.
Mineral Resources: Much publicized. Minerals, particularly rare-earth elements, will become accessible as temperatures rise, and Greenland and Northern Canada can be accessed and mined. The West needs to break China's stranglehold of rare earth elements. Developing new and rebuilding old mines across the U.S., Canada, and Greenland will end China's dominance.
New Shipping Route: Global warming is opening both the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage across the Arctic Ocean. The NSR runs from the Barents Sea, near Russia's border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska (shown in red on the diagram). The Northwest Passage connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (shown in green on the diagram).
Sea Routes through the Arctic Ocean
So why is shipping so important? West Asian, Northern Pacific, and Northern Atlantic to drastically reduce shipping time and costs. Shipping from Europe to the Western Pacific runs through the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal, and past Malacca to reach eastern Asia—a journey of 13,00 miles and 48 days. Using either of the two Arctic shipping routes cut the distance to 8,00 miles, reducing transit time by 10 to 15 days. Analysts predict that 15% of all Chinese trade will be through the Northern Sea Route when it opens. In short, The new Arctic sea lanes will drastically cut shipping costs and transit times by more than 50%.
Today, the Arctic Sea routes are open for a few months out of the year. However, global warming is expanding the length of time that lanes are open every year. Sea traffic has doubled through the Arctic in the last 10 years to benefit countries on the shores of the Arctic Ocean. From the 2050s to 2070s, the Arctic will open to continuous passage.
Increased Annual Shipping by Country in the Arctic Ocean
Greenland is a big deal – hence all the "noise and rhetoric." Now that you have the facts, it is obvious that the rhetoric is over more than just resources in Greenland.
If something is valuable, it requires protection, which opens a debate about defense, security, and who al. Other than the surveillance systems against nuclear attack (i.e Cobra Dane Radar at Pituffik Space Force Base, etc.), the Arctic Ocean has needed few military resources as a form of deterrence.
Canada will now have thousands of miles of coastline to patrol and protect. Only nuclear submarines can credibly operate in areas like the Arctic Ocean, which combines open sea, ice flow (navigable broken ice), and the remainder covered by massive ice sheets. Today, Canada has only 4 Victoria-class conventional submarines reaching the end of life to patrol this new coastline and passage. Canada was supposed to acquire a new generation of UK Astute class nuclear submarines, but the order was canceled as part of former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau's budget cuts when he entered office.
Canada and Greenland depend on U.S. submarine forces and other military forces to patrol and act as a deterrence against Russia, which currently claims over 40% of the Arctic as its territory. The U.S. is over-extended at this point. Only France and the UK have submarines capable of taking up the slack. Unfortunately, both the UK and France are overextended too. French and British submarines complement NATO naval forces, keeping tabs on the Russian Mediterranean and Black Sea fleets. The U.S. and UK Submarines patrol the so-called GIUK gap (Greenland - Iceland - UK gap), which patrols all the possible exits of the Russian Northern fleet into the Atlantic.
It's neither madness nor whim that the incoming Trump administration is pressuring Denmark (on Greenland) and Canada with tariff negotiations. Both nations have contributed less than 1.4% of their GDP, 0.6% less than the 2% minimum NATO requirement. Canada and Denmark are among thet lowest contributors to the common defense. By treaty, the defense of these regions falls on the U.S.. Canada and Denmark are taking extreme advantage of the U.S. taxpayers and, frankly, the UK taxpayers. Military, economic, and territorial access will require major changes to meet the growing threat. These sustained underinvestments at the U.S.'s expense factor into the New Trump Administration tariff and territorial rhetoric.
The Changing of the Guard – Inauguration Week.
America needs a change, and it has voted for a change. That change will begin on January 20th with the inauguration of the Trump Administration. I will not comment on the exiting Biden Administration except to commend Secretary of State Anthony Blinking for forging two important military/defense entities to strengthen the U.S. in the Western Pacific, AUKUS and thet QUAD.
AUKUS – cemented a maritime technology, development, and defense alliance to build up a new generation of submarines to patrol and protect the Western Pacific to keep Chinese aggression in check Hint to the Trump administration – negotiate CANUKUS – and equivalent Canada, UK, and U.S. submarine deal for the Arctic. Perhaps Greenland And Denmark could kick in some economic incentive, i.e., mining rights and military access – Just a Crazy thought, but an obvious fair and equitable solution.
The QUAD, short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. A growing security alliance for the Western Pacific between India, Australia, Japan, and the U.S. to further strengthen maritime and military security against Chinese aggression
As for the rest of the Biden Administration's legacy, future historians must judge the results. That judgment is not for us as we are too close to the situation to evaluate objectively. We can only hope the incoming Trump administration will nurture these important alliances. America can not go it alone. We need to have strong Allies, and we need to be a dependable Ally in return. Our Allies are sometimes lost in MAGA rhetoric and negotiations.
Lights out for TicTok
TiicTok shuts down Sunday, January 19th – it may already be shut down as you read this Dystopic. Frankly, I don't get the fuss. I don't use the app. However, my grown children are fairly agitated by the shutdown. They shouldn't worry. TikTok will be back up and running under American ownership in a month at most, more likely in a few days.
The media is hyping Elon Musk vs a group of investors led by Kevin O'Leary of "Shark Tank" Fame. I'd look for a serious media group like Time Warner or Comcast to make a play – they need further expansion into "New Media" and have the pockets to match the Silicon Valley crowd.
That is a wrap for the week ...
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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