May 27, 2026

Dystopic Newsletter

SpaceX: An Incredible Company with a Risky IPO & World Flash Point Update

SpaceX Starship Mission test flight 12, Friday, May 22, 2026 Starbase Texas the first flight of the Starship and Super Heavy V3 vehicles, the Raptor 3 engines, the first flight from Pad 2, and the first Starship flight to deploy modified Starlink satellites to image Starship in space

Welcome back to Dystopic. I took some time off to prepare for my lecture for SmallSat Europe 2026 and a sailing vacation in St Martin (which included a close call with piracy - which is an entire story in itself … but I digress).

Speaking of which, here is a shameless plug for SmallSat Europe 2026.It is Europe’s premier space conference held at the RAI conference center in Amsterdam, May 26 to 28^th.

I’ll be providing a technical briefing on: Tech Brief: Orbital Data Centers – Logistics

What’s the lecture about?

Deploying data centers in orbit offers radical benefits. All the major space transport and AI infrastructure players, SpaceX, Amazon/Blue Origin, Google, etc., are planning for 1000s of satellite data centers to be in orbit. The logistical hurdles of getting them there and keeping them running are immense. This technical brief examines the physical infrastructure needed for space-based servers, including thermal management, power generation, and payload integration. We’ll outline the roadmap for making orbital compute nodes a physical reality.

In addition, I’ll be leading a panel discussion on: Quantum-Ready Constellations: Optical Comms and QKD for Unhackable Links.

While these topics are the stuff space technology geeks love to learn about, they are totally accessible to people who just want to learn where the space industry is heading.

I’ll share my presentation and lecture videos in a future Dystpoic Newsletter

A majority of this week's newsletter will be devoted to SpaceX, so my lecture preparation will come in handy this week! Before we hit our main topic, let’s do a quick update on the hot spots around the world …

Political Potpourri: A look at the world’s hot spots and events while I was away

I picked a great time to take a break. I missed the repeated news cycles about possible peace terms in Iran, a major summit between the US and China, and the ongoing grinding war between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine-Russia War

While you likely missed it amid all the other news, Ukraine has blunted Russia's spring offensive and reclaimed over 400 square kilometers in the south since then. Ukraine's successful counteroffensives in the South, in Zaporizhzhia & Kherson, forced Moscow into a cascading crisis, compelling the Russian military to choose between defending its southern lines and heavily resourcing priority attacks in the Donbas.

The ISW, The Institute for the Study of War, reports that a new generation of Ukrainian-developed mid and long-range missiles has successfully targeted Russian oil infrastructure, naval assets, and defense plants as far as Moscow. The attacks have resulted in a significant reduction in Russian oil output.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has officially exceeded the duration of the Russian fighting in World War 2. Russia has suffered over 1.2 million casualties (killed and wounded) while Ukraine has suffered 1/3 of that, 400,000 casualties. Perhaps more telling is that Ukraine is generating more Russian casualties than Russian recruiting and training can replace.

The tide is turning, and Russia is losing the war. Analysts at the Atlantic Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies believe Russia's military and negotiating positions have plateaued. Russia should negotiate for peace now. Unfortunately, Putin is stubborn, he belives ina acountinued war of attrition, Russia will eventually win, and has continued his demands for large-scale concessions

We can only hope Putin comes to his senses and seeks an offramp to the carnage. However, history teaches that dictators (Hitler, Tojo, Pol Pot, etc) must ultimately be defeated to end their violent conquests and so the carnage continues.

The Iran War

Much like the title of my book, it is fair to ask How the Hell Did We Get Here? I’ll summarize what we have now learned so far:

An attack of some sort on Iran was necessary. Iran, by its own statements, declared it was on the threshold of building 11 nuclear weapons in days.

• Even if this was an exaggeration, Israel and the US could not afford to allow a nuclear-capable Iran

A Decapitation Strike. The Iran War started based on an opportunity Israel had intelligence of a gathering of nearly all of Iran’s senior leadership, a golden opportunity to change Iran's leadership.

• The information was so secret and timely that the US failed to consult ANY of its Allies about the pending strike. Offended by being “out of the loop,” our allies refused to support the war in any meaningful way. US relations with our allies remain strained even today.

Victory Disease: Much like Japan at Midway after the incredible victory at Pearl Harbor, President Trump and his advisors assumed that Operation Epic Fury would mirror Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela. Remove the leadership, and the remaining leadership would surrender. The assumption was a massive error in judgment.

• Iran is governed by a religious oligarchy. Their religion-fueled hatred makes them not only irrational but practically suicidal. As I have noted in my previous Dystoic newsletters, Iran, like any authoritarian regime, will have to be destroyed; the IRGC and clerics will not capitulate.

o Iran is not Venezuela, and the assumption of a quick victory was completely false.

Irrational Economic Behavior: The Trump Administration failed to consider that Iran would strike all of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors. Again, religion plays a part. Iran is the center of Shia Islam, while the Gulf Arab states are the original home of Mecca, the historic center of the Sunni sect of Islam. The disruption and destruction of 20% of the world's oil capacity is an irrational act. The US simply did not believe Iran would act with this level of near-suicidal irrational economic behavior. The administration underestimated the behavior of religious zealots.

The limits of the US’s inventory and replacement supply chain of air defense interceptors: despite claims to the contrary, the US has significantly expended much of its arsenal of air defense interceptors (THAAD, Patriot, and US Navy SM-3). It has also decreased much of its long rage ofensive weaponry like Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The sudden cessation of Epic Fury was never driven by a pending peace agreement. THAT IS A LIE BEING TOLD EVERY DAY BY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. The strategic pause is driven by 2 factors:

• Interceptor missile inventories. We needed to “reload.” If the US, Israel, and our Gulf allies run out of interceptors, there would be no protection for 20% of the world's oil production capacity.
• A Cease Fire, no matter how imperfect, lowers the rate and intensity of attacks on our Gulf Allies and provides a pause for the US and our allies to rearm. ( of course, the downside is Iran will also rearm, making the resumption of armed conflict more dangerous than just finishing up the job at the start of the war – A critical error )

Plain and simple, Iran and the US are in a “Mexican Standoff.” The standoff can only last so long:

• The world’s economy will be in recession in a matter of a few months. There is significant global pressure to end this war
• Trump’s entire presidency will be judged a failure with significant US political ramifications, including impeachment if the Hormuz Strait is not opened and the Iranian nuclear program is not dismantled.

Iran’s goal is to play for time despite the crushing economic impact of the US counter-blockade.

US Depletion of Air Interceptor and Long Range Standoff Weapons

In early 2026, before the start of EPIC FURY, Arash Marzbanmehr of the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, in his article "Why Trump Hesitates to Go to War with Iran," outlined the danger the US and Israel faced with respect to the depth of their missile and air defense arsenals.

Four months later, after six furious weeks of war, Marzbanmehr’s words have come to fruition. US strategies are now being dictated by the departments overseeing our missile and air defense arsenals. Of course, the US Department of War would vehemently deny that conclusion.

Let’s take a deeper look …

The Center for Strategic and Economic Studies (CSIS) article, Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire provided an inventory assessment of seven of the US’s most critical long-range and air defense systems. Here is the rundown:

• THAAD interceptor: 190 to 290 used in an inventory of 360 (53% to 81%) with a 53-month delivery time.
• Patriot PAC-3 interceptor: 1,060 to 1,430 used in an inventory of 2,330 (46% to 58% with a 42-month delivery time.
• Strike Missile (PrSM): 40 to 70 used in an inventory of 90 (45% to 55%) with a 46-month delivery time.
• SM-3 interceptor: 130 to 250 used in an inventory of 410 (40% to 61%) with a 64-month delivery time
• Tomahawk (land attack) : 1000+ used in an inventory of 3100( 30%) with a 47-month delivery time
• JASSM-ER: 1100+ used in an inventory of 4400 (20%–25% ) with a 48-month delivery time
• SM-6 interceptor: 190 to 370 used in an inventory of 1,160 (16% to 32% ) with a 48-month delivery time

The numbers do not lie. In 39 days of fighting, the US has more or less burned through 1/3 to ½ of our advanced weapons inventory, much of which takes 4 years to replace. These are expensive weapons. At $ 28.7 million each, we have burned through $7.2 billion on US Navy SM-3 interceptors alone. This is why the Department of War has requested a minimum of $200 billion in authorization form congress for the war effort

While this sounds bad, there is better news. Should the US execute the next phase of a war against Iran, the US can use alternate weapons in its inventory: shorter-range, low-cost precision attack weapons that we stock in large numbers:

• Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM): The JDAM is a guidance kit that gives “dumb” bombs precision strike capability. Inventory of 145K to 180K units with a cost of $66,000 each
• Joint Air-to-Ground Missile (JAGM): The JAGM replaces the Hellfire as an air-launched munition for attack helicopters. Inventory of 5K units with a cost of $249,000. JAGM will replace Hellfire moving forward.
• Hellfire: The Hellfire is the current air-launched munition for attack helicopters. Inventory of 40K to 45k units with a cost of $213,000.
• Small Diameter Bomb I & II (SDB): SDBI//II are air-launched, precision-guided glide bombs for stationary or moving targets.

The next phase of attack against Iran, it will be based on massive precision bombing and attack helicopter raids. The new phase of the war will be conducted at close range and, as such, will result in higher casualties and equipment losses than the first phase of Epic Fury.

It is a risky decision for President Trump. Unfortunately, nearly all military and political strategists believe that the only way the war will be brought to an end is through a short- but intense bombing campaign against the IRGC, power plants, and oil economy infrastructure. It will take decades for Iran to recover.

Time will tell the outcome over the next weeks or at most a few months.

However, by failing to act, President Trump is falling into a historical trap. Gideon Rose, in his May 20th, 2026 Foreign Affairs article, "Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea: Similar Wars End in Similar Ways."Iran is quickly becoming Vietnam, and following the same historical precedents when Johnson escalated US troop deployments and force, yet continued to fail to stop the North Vietnamese. Nixon turned to what his Chief of Staff, HR Haldeman, called the ”Madman Theory,” the threat of massive strikes to attempt to get Ho Chi Min to the bargaining table and end the war.

Nixon’s strategy failed, forever tarnishing the reputation of Johnson, Nixon, and America until Ronald Reagan resurrected US power and prestige.

A window exists for Trump to avoid Johnson’s and Nixon’s fate. Iran can be forced to submit with a brief but furious military campaign with limited boots on the ground.

Trump’s endless cycle of empty threats followed by failed claims of negotiations has to stop. His uncontrolled impulsiveness without a coherent strategy has undermined both Trump’s credibility and the credibility of American deterrence worldwide. President Trump should heed the words of President Theodore Roosevelt to “Walk Softly but carry a big stick.”

At this point, actions alone will speak louder than words. With respect to autocrats/dictators, theocratic or other, they will not quit. They must be destroyed.

The Great US-China Summit That Wasn’t

Did you miss all the incredible, earth-shattering news from the recent US-China summit? No? That is because, aside from some beautiful Chinese pop and circumstances, nothing happened. It was all overshadowed by the situation in the Middle East.

The White House Press Room delivered its hyperventilated summary of US accomplishments during the summit, Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry​

First and most importantly, there were no substantive changes in position or in agreements regarding Taiwan, which was the single most important issue and should have been the entire focus of the summit.

The summit instead focused on three pillars of discussion, which I’ll decode into the actual achievements for you:

• CONTRIBUTING TO PEACE AND PROSPERITY – which turned out to be commitments to President Xi’s upcoming visit to Washington and the next G20 meeting. These were already set!
• ESTABLISHING U.S.-CHINA BOARDS OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT – this can be decoded as continuing ongoing bilateral trade negotiations. A new name for an existing set of diplomatic and economic discussions – again, nothing new here.
• DELIVERING FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS, AND INDUSTRY – the usual potpourri for China to agree to purchase farm products and AI chips, and to stop dumping heavily subsidized products on the US market. The Chinese did not fulfill their economic promises to Trump during his first term, and they will not fulfill them now.

The US did claim that China agreed that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. No equivalent confirmation has come from China. If true, that would be the biggest piece of news from the summit. Yet all evidence points to China providing military and intelligence support to Iran – where was that discussion?

Major Washington think tanks, such as CSIS and the Atlantic Council, argued that the summit was tactical in nature and did not include substantive discussions of strategic issues. The summit offered some small, mutual steps to ease the current trade war situation but failed to address large structural supply chain issues (e.g., rare Earth minerals and AI chips).

In the end, both sides were buying time at the summit and, in a way, talking past each other. The Atlantic Council observed that both the U.S. and China publicly championed "strategic stability" at the summit. However, “strategic stability,” much like the old Cold War détente, meant different things to each side. For Washington, détente is necessary to buy time to build its industrial base and rearm. For Beijing, economic détente with the U.S., combined with steps in Iran, provides opportunities to improve China’s international position during a domestic economic slowdown.

​CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) coined the term “A Summit of Equals” for the latest US-China Summit. In a way, President Xi has achieved his goal of elevating China to world-class status. The US is treating China as its economic and military equal at this point. Yet where was the substance? Where were the fundamental diplomatic and economic breakthroughs? This summit was “all hat and no cattle,” as we say in Texas.

Trump and Xi meet again in December of this year. Let's hope that turns out to be a substantive meeting, unlike this overblown and underperforming confab we have just witnessed. The world deserves better than that.

SpaceX Incredible Company - Risky IPO

SpaceX is a phenomenon. A visionary company, maniacally focused on mankind’s future in space. Space is now a commercial business, no longer solely driven by government and military spending. It is little wonder that the world financial community was abuzz when SpaceX filed its S-1 papers for a public offering.

It is difficult to explain the extent of the impact SpaceX has had, so I thought running through a few numbers and corporate milestones would give you a better picture:

Space launches:

• In 2025: 170 launches out of a global total of 329. SpaceX accounts for over half, 51.6% to be exact, of the space launches.
• In 2026, it is estimated that the number of launches will rise to 180 to 200

Starlink:

• Ended 2025 with nearly 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, and that is expected to grow to nearly 13,000 by the end of 2026
• Starlink served 9.2 million subscribers at the end of 2026. That number is expected to double to over 18 million in 2026
• The Starlink business became profitable in 2023. For 2025, Satrlink earned $4.4 billion in operating income on $11.3 billion in revenue. For 2026, Starlink is projected to reach between $15.9 billion and $20 billion in revenue with an operating profit in the range of $11 billion

Starship and the reduction in the cost per kilogram in orbit

• SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy workhorse launch vehicles revolutionized the cost to launch a kilogram mass to Low Earth Orbit by 95%. During the space shuttle era, NASA's cost was $54,000 per kg (adjusted for inflation). Today, SpaceX charges between $1,400 to $2,700 per kg depending on the launch configuration.
• Starship is expected to reduce costs by another factor of 10x, with an industry-projected price of $200 to $300 per kg to LEO early in the program. As Starship matures, the launch cost is expected to fall below $100.

Government Programs:

• National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3: SpaceX is the lead launch provider for the Pentagon. Through a massive deal finalized in 2025, SpaceX was awarded an estimated $5.9 billion for 28 missions.
• National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Spy Satellites: SpaceX is developing and launching classified spy satellites for the NRO. Industry reports value this overarching intelligence and hardware contract at approximately $1.8 billion
• Starshield & Starlink: Ongoing tactical broadband and secure communications contracts with U.S. Special Operations Command, the Air Force, and NATO allies. Perhaps most important is support for Ukraine and SpaceX’s tireless efforts to thwart Russian jamming and cyberattacks.
• Crew Transportation (Commercial Crew): SpaceX transports NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station. Valued at $2.6 billion initially, the program has since seen extensions that have brought its total value to roughly $4.9 billion.
• Artemis Human Landing System (HLS): SpaceX is developing the Starship Human Landing System to land astronauts on the Moon. The initial $2.89 billion contract has been expanded through additional NASA task orders to over $4 billion. The program is heavily dependent on the success of the Starship program and any future Mars missions.
• And Everything Else: And many more missions and support contracts for an array of other space commercial and government programs worldwide

It cannot be understated what an impressive record SpaceX has delivered and will continue to deliver.

The Chinese and lagging Russian space programs pale in comparison to SpaceX. Granted, the Chinese are accelerating and improving constantly. Still, SpaceX has quickly become the foundation of the US Space Economy.

X

The Run Up to the SpaceX IPO

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm

Unless you have been living in a cave for the last year, you must be aware of the building hype surrounding the SpaceX IPO. On May 20^th 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released the SpaceX S-1 (public offering). ​

It is the largest IPO ever released. As Al Jazeera reports:

At a nearly $2 trillion valuation, SpaceX will have a higher valuation than Meta and Tesla and be just below the valuations of Nvidia, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, and its space industry rival Amazon/Blue Origin. The Big 7 technology companies will become the Big 8.

To build up the expectation and support for SpaceX’s stratospheric valuation, Musk and his team started a series of announcements about both forward-looking projects and the vertical integration of existing and new companies that will fold under the SpaceX banner.

• January 30, 2026, SpaceX files with the FCC for a 1,000,000 satellite constellation for AI/Data Centers. https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-113A1.pdf. The filing prompted a series of counterfilings by competitors and drew the media's full attention. It also set the stage for why xAI and X will be integrated into SpaceX.
• February 2, 2026, SpaceX announced its formal merger with xAI
• March 21, 2026, SpaceX, alongside Tesla and xAI, officially announced the "Terafab" project to be built in Grimes County, Texas. Initial funding is $55 billion, with total funding expected to grow to upwards of $119 billion. This world-class fabrication center will license Intel’s A14 1.4nm ASIC fabrication technology and enable complete silicon integration for all SpaceX and Tesla products.
• May 6, 2026, SpaceX announced a sweeping compute capacity agreement with Anthropic. The deal secured $1.25 billion per month for access to SpaceX’s Colossus data center
• May 22, 2026. The mostly sucesful 12^th test launch of Starship and the first launch of the new version 3 technology, which successfully placed a series of test satellites in orbit and simulated 2^nd stage capture in the Indian Ocean

First came the hype around the investment and the company's long-term future. This was followed by the facts revealed in SpaceX's S-1. The valuation of SpaceX is pure speculation. The market is betting on Elon Musk’s vision and execution, even though the financial fundamentals indicate that SpaceX is a losing business in the short and medium term.

As the Economist noted in their May 21^st article, SpaceX is capitalism of rocket fuel, and the SpaceX S-1 has “Risk” written all over it. The S-1 states that 90% of SpaceX’s potential sales, valued at $ 28.5 trillion (essentially the GDP of the US), will come from space-based AI.

Let's break the numbers down from the financials release in the SpaceX S-1 :

SpaceX's S-1 filing, which consolidates the new company’s financials to include xAI, reveals a profitable Starlink satellite internet business that subsidizes massive losses in its AI operations. For 2025, the combined entity reported $18.6 billion in revenue and a consolidated operating loss of $2.59 billion.

In 2025, Starlink generated $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.42 billion in operating income. In Q1 2026, Starlink remained the sole profitable segment of the combined company, delivering $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating income. That is the good news.

Now, the not-so-good news. Space operations, i.e., launch services and technology development, including Starship test flights, generated $619 million in revenue but incurred a $662 million loss. The operating losses for xAI were worse in 2026. xAI posted an operating loss of $2.4 billion on $818 million in revenue.

SpaceX is a capital-intensive business. In Q1 2026 alone, xAI's capital spending reached $7.72 billion, contributing to a total company-wide capex of roughly $10.1 billion.

The bottom line is that SpaceX is losing ~$1 billion a month. There is no doubt SpaceX has a path to trillions of dollars in sales. That is at least a decade away and completely hinges on the success of Starship. Should Starship fail, SpaceX will fail.

I’m rooting for SpaceX, but like all investments, Caveat Emptor, "let the buyer beware".

Speaking of Starship, we couldn’t end this weeks newsletter without a quick report on Starship test mission 12.

The New Starship: Version 3 & Test Mission 12

Starship mission 12 was, for the most part, a major success with a number of firsts:

• First use of the Raptor 3 engines on both the first stage “Super Heavy” and second stage “Starship”
• Starship (2^nd stage) successfully deployed all 20 Starlink simulators and two modified Starlink satellites that imaged Starship in space
• A successful first landing in the Indian Ocean of the Starship Second stage

Here is a synopsis of the mission directly from SpaceX. You can learn more about the mission and view images and videos HERE​

Mission 12 added to the Hype around the SpaceX IPO. It was also an incredible step to the commercial availability of Starship for both commercial, military, and NASA’s Artemis lunar program

Starship: What is It and What Has Changed in Version 3

https://orbitaltoday.com/2026/05/15/spacex-starship-v3-differences-from-v1-v2/#google_vignette

Starship, the launch system, comprised two stages:

• ·Super Heavy, the first stage booster rocket powered by 33 Raptor Generation 3 engines
• Starship, Second stage powered by 6 Raptor engines with a payload volume of 1000 m^3 with a fully reusable cross cargo weight (to Low Earth Orbit) of 100 to 200 metric tons and an expendable gross cargo weight of Up to 400metric tons

Starship will revolution cost to orbit by a factor of 10x or more

What are the big improvements for the Starship version 3? Here is Orbital Today’s take on the changes:

Here is a quick summary of the upgrades for all you space cadets …

Size and thrust

• The vehicle height has increased 1.5m to 124.4 m (408.1 ft) versus Starship V2
• The 33 new Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy 1st stage have a combined thrust of 8,200‑9,200 tons. The most powerful rocket in history by total thrust.
• The Starship second stage has 6 new Raptors. Three V3 engines for sea‑level landing breaking. Three engines optimized to work in the vacuum of space.

Engineering and Mechanical changes

• Larger grid fins (3, not 4). The fins are 50% larger and stronger to help steer the booster back to the tower for catch-style recovery.
• The hot-stage ring has been redesigned and is now fixed to the top of Super Heavy instead of jettisoning the ring (more reuse). The ring supports hot-staging, which allows the 2nd-stage starship to ignite its engines before full separation, improving efficiency.
• Upgraded fuel transfer tube on the Super Heavy first stage booster so that all 33 engines can start faster and more in sync, reducing pad‑time and risk.
• Improved heat shielding and aft‑end layout on Super Heavy to better protect engines and avionics during re‑entry and landing burns.
• More propellant capacity and revised pumps/plumbing on Starship 2^nd stage, plus four new docking ports to support orbital refueling (a must‑have for lunar landings and Mars).

SpaceX fast fail development model works. Mission 12 is just another incredible example of testing massive changes simultaneously rather than serially.

That’s a wrap for this week …

Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News

Thank you for your readership and support. Please recommend Dystopic to friends and family who are interested, or just share this email.

Not on the Dystopic mail list? New Readers can sign up for Dystopic HERE

If you have missed a Dystopic News letter, you can find select back copies HERE ​

Follow Me on Social

​​​

​Unsubscribe | Update your profile | 113 Cherry St #92768, Seattle, WA 98104-2205