Dystopic: Missile Defense in the New Israel-Iran War
Published 14 days ago • 11 min read
June 15,. 2025
Dystopic Newsletter
Missile Defense in the New Israel-Iran War
Effects of 45 Kiloton Nuclear attack on Tel Aviv, Israel (Source: NukeMap, Dr. Alex Wellerstein)
Happy Father's Day to all the Dads reading this newsletter!
As I write this newsletter, we are now 3 days into the Iran-Israel War. Rather than recounting the strikes and counterstrikes each side has waged against the other, which can be found on any major news website, this is Dystopic, so we are taking a deeper examination of the war so far.
Let's start with the big question ...
Why is Israel at war with Iran?
It's all about the bomb, the nuclear bomb, and who can be trusted to have it.
Israeli Intelligence had evidence that Iran was getting close, possibly a few weeks, from achieving “BREAK OUT,” the assembly of a functional nuclear weapon(s). Combined with Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, all of Israel would be at risk. A situation intolerable to the Israeli people. There was simply no more time to wait for U.S. negotiations; the intelligence was clear that the window to prevent Iran from assembling a weapon was closing.
Here are the facts
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of mid-May 2025, Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile was estimated at 9,247.6 kilograms, or more than 45 times the limit set out in the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Furthermore, the IAEA estimates that among its stockpiles, Iran has an estimated 408.6 kilograms enriched to up to 60 percent — just a short step from the 90% needed for a nuclear warhead.
Iran now theoretically has enough near-weapons-grade material, if further refined, for about 10 nuclear bombs, according to the IAEA. Some intelligence sources put the number as high as 15 bombs.
As we will discuss later in this Dystopic, missile defense, no matter how effective, does fail. Iran is already using ballistic missile saturation strikes – massed attacks at specific targets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. The attacks on Tel Aviv on Friday, June 13th, are a perfect example of such an attack. Now imagine Iran had assembled 10 nuclear weapons and mated them to 10 nuclear-capable Khorramshahr MRBM Medium-range Ballistic missiles and included them in a barrage of 100 conventionally armed. Based on current Israel air defense successful engagement rates of 90%, 10% of a ballistic missile saturation strike will get through. In all likelihood, one nuclear weapon would strike Tel Aviv.
Assuming Iran’s weapons are based on the designs provided by Pakistan, Iran’s nuclear weapon would have a yield of 45 Kiloton on TNT, about three times the destructive force of the bomb used on Hiroshima in World War II. Using Dr. Alex Wellerstein's NukeMap simulator and assuming an airburst attack designed to provide the widest possible civilian destruction would result in the following casualties (see opening graphic) :
208,840 Fatalities
376,370 Injuries
As this simulation makes clear, Israel could no longer afford to wait and allow Iran to assemble 10 to 15 nuclear weapons. Despite having one of the most effective missile defense systems in the world, Israel could not afford to lose its capital and 5% of the country's population as casualties. It was time to act, and act decisively. Now, a war is underway in the Middle East between the two strongest military powers in the region.
Iran and Israel’s War Strategies: Counterforce vs Countervalue
The concept of counterforce and countervalue arose during the Cold War, particularly in the context of nuclear deterrence. It is in play now. Israel is pursuing a strategy of counterforce targeting. Their objectives have been against Iran’s military forces and infrastructure. In particular, Israel is targeting:
Leadership: so-called decapitation strikes of both military and nuclear weapons design and development personnel. “Kill the leadership, kill the know-how.”
Air Defense: achieve air superiority and control of Iran’s airspace. This has largely been achieved, and Israel can attack at will
Nuclear Facilities: The primary objective of the war. The most critical targets are Iran’s uranium enrichment centers at Natanz and Fordow. Without which Iran can’t take its supply of 60% enriched uranium to make 90% enriched weapons-grade uranium.
Ballistic Missiles: Missile bases and mobile launchers, missile production facilities, and critical targets. Ballistic missiles are far more difficult to defend against compared to aircraft, drones, and cruise missiles (“air-breather” weapons). So far in the war, Israel’s layered air defense has destroyed 90% of Iran’s ballistic missiles and has greater than 95% of “air-breather” targets.
Iran is pursuing a strategy of countervalue, targeting Israel’s cities and economic centers, with Jerusalem and Tel Aviv being primary targets. Iran is launching “saturation strikes,” hoping to overwhelm Israel’s missile defenses. With 10% of the strikes getting through and hitting Israeli civilian areas, Iran’s strategy is marginally working.
All strategy aside, will the war achieve the goal of neutralizing Iran’s Nuclear program?
To answer that, we turn to the comments made by Daniel Benjamin Shapiro, the United States Ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017, in an interview in Foreign Affairs
“Most estimates suggested Israel, on its own, could set back the Iranian nuclear program by several months. Public reports have estimated that U.S. strikes, meanwhile, could set the Iranian nuclear program back by up to a year. But those timelines assume Iran immediately starts rebuilding, and they do not take into account additional delays that could occur based on economic or political factors. Those estimates also do not account for the impact of deterrence or potential restrikes.
But it is likely that Iran will now make a desperate run to nuclear breakout. [President] Trump, in turn, will be faced with a decision about whether to intervene militarily to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon. That decision will split his advisers and political base, given his long-stated determination to keep the United States out of Middle East war.”
Unless there is a long-term commitment to suppress Iran's nuclear program continuously, Israel is only taking a delaying action. The war will be a long-term commitment of cyclic violence, which only regime change in Tehran can end ...
Welcome to another Forever War in the Middle East
But first things first, Israel must destroy Iran’s current nuclear infrastructure. There are serious tactical obstacles there …
The Problem: underground nuclear enrichment facilities
Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Source: Global Security
Enrichment is the key to building a nuclear weapon.
Iran has two main underground nuclear enrichment facilities: Natanz and Fordow. Natanz is Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility, with multiple cascades of centrifuges. Part of the facility is underground to protect against potential airstrikes. Fordow is located deep underground, potentially up to 80 meters (260 feet) beneath a mountain near Qom. It is considered Iran's best-protected nuclear site and contains Iran's most advanced centrifuges,
In addition, Iran is also developing a large, deeply buried tunnel complex at Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, just south of Natanz. This, too, will have to be destroyed.
Short of using a tactical nuclear weapon, Israel will have to use U.S.-supplied GBU 28 and BLU 109 bunker-busting bombs to attack these sites.
The GBU-28 is a 5,000-pound, laser-guided bomb designed to penetrate hardened structures and can reach depths of 20 meters or roughly 60 feet. Israel acquired 100 GBU-28s from the US in 2005. Israeli Air Force F-15 Strike Eagle fighter bombers can be configured to deliver GBU-28
The BLU-109 is a 2000-pound US-made bunker-buster bomb that Israel has received. The US has supplied Israel with 100 BLU-109s, and the weapons are configured to be carried on Israeli Air Force F-35 Lightning stealth fighters
GBU-28 and BLU 109 Bunker buster bombs Source: Financial Times
While GBU-28 and BLU-109 are capable of destroying the facilities at Natanz. Fordow is buried too deeply, 80 meters, for these weapons to be effective. To destroy Fordow and the still under construction nuclear site at Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, will require GBU-57A MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), a precision-guided, 30,000-pound (13,600 kg) "bunker buster" bomb. The GBU-57A is so massive that it can only be carried by a B2 or new B21 Raider stealth bomber.
B-2 bomber dropping GBU-57A MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), in live ordnance test
To achieve the war’s primary objective, the elimination of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel will have to call on the U.S for a B2 GBU-57A MOP strike on both Fordow and Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā. One way or another, the U.S. will have to go on the offensive, along with all the political and military issues that come with it.
Until Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, Israel will have to rely on its layered air defenses to protect its people. Since this is a Dystopian Newsletter and our goal is to examine “The Technology Behind Today's News,” let's take a look at Layered Missile Defense.
Missile Defense – An Imperfect Shield
To explain how Layered Missile Defense works, I’m going to use an excerpt from my soon-to-be-published book, How the Hell Did We Get Here?Specifically, Chapter 8: Missile Defense: Deterrence through Protection.
Before I begin, I’d like to reference three of my blog posts with in-depth information about nuclear war and missile defense as extended background for this Dystopic newsletter:
The concept and technology development to create a North American missile defense system started in the 1960s. While tremendous technological progress has been made over the past six decades, the major nuclear powers (Russia, UK, US, France, and China) continue to reach the same conclusion. The cost of a general missile defense system, able to stop a large-scale general nuclear strike of hundreds to thousands of nuclear missiles and warheads, is economically unfeasible. Further, creating such a system would be deemed a threat to the balance of power, the so-called policy of MAD, mutually assured destruction, that holds the major powers in check from launching a nuclear war of any size.
“The systems that we have … are not focused on trying to render useless Russia’s nuclear capability. That, in our view, as in theirs, would be enormously destabilizing, not to mention unbelievably expensive.”
—Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense (Center for Arms Control and Nuclear Non-Proliferation 2025).
How a Layered Missile Defense Works
To understand missile defense, we must first understand a nuclear missile’s launch and flight sequence. Regardless of the missile’s flight range, intercontinental, intermediate, or short, its flight path is characterized by three stages (Dodge 2024).
The Boost Phase: Extends from the time a missile is launched from its platform until its engines stop thrusting. The unique thermal signature allows infrared satellite sensors to detect and track the missile. Loaded with propellant, the missile is most vulnerable to an attack in the boost phase. The US and all other nations lack drone or other combat aircraft platforms capable of mounting a boost phase attack for most locations. The one exception is North Korea, where US and Japanese Navy Aegis equipped destroyers armed with SM-3 interceptors can engage North Korean Ballistic missiles in the boost phase over the Sea of Japan.
The Midcourse Phase: The longest of the three phases, it offers a unique opportunity to intercept an incoming threat. Space-based optical and radar satellites track incoming enemy missiles during the midcourse phase, feeding tracking and point-of-impact data to ground-based early warning radars and antimissile systems. Enemy decoys are more readily identified in the midcourse phase. The first layer of the US missile defense, GBM, is a ground-based midcourse interceptor missile that engages the targets at this time.
The Terminal Phase: Typically less than one minute long, enemy warheads achieve their highest velocity during the terminal phase, drastically shortening the window of engagement. The incoming warhead’s rapidly reducing altitude limits the coverage area of our terminal phase air defense interceptors: THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor), Navy Aegis SM-3, Patriot PAC-3, and Israel’s Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 interceptors.
Graphic: P Struhsaker, Data Source: (Dodge 2024; Israel Ministry of Defense 2025)
Terminal phase interceptor systems can engage “air-breathing threats” like drones, cruise missiles, and aircraft. Low-cost, short-range antimissile systems like the vaunted Israeli Iron Dome system augment these systems. The Iron Dome will shortly be joined by very short-range direct energy weapons, like the Rafael Iron Beam system, which we will discuss later in this chapter.
Different missile systems are designed to combat specific types of incoming missiles by the range of the missile—short, intermediate/medium, and intercontinental—as well as the phase of the attacking missile, midcourse, or terminal. The US continually upgrades its interceptors and missile defense systems to engage a wider range of threats. For example, the latest upgrade to the US Navy’s SM-3 missile, SM-3 Block IIA, allows midcourse intercept of medium and Intermediate-range missiles. SM-3 Block IIA is ideally suited for midcourse intercept of North Korean intermediate-range missiles fired at Japan. The US has deep strategic antimissile development programs with Israel and Japan, in part due to the imminent threats Israel faces from Iran and Japan faces from North Korea.
US and Israeli Missile Defense Interceptors Graphic: P Struhsaker, Data Source: (Liang 2025; Dodge 2024)
Except for the GMD, Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system, which relies on the US global early warning detection network, missile defense systems like Patriot or Iron Dome are designed to be self-contained and easily deployed. A typical missile defense system contains three elements. First is a powerful phased array radar capable of tracking hundreds of targets simultaneously. Second is a targeting and control system operated by defense system personnel, who designate targets and select interceptors to engage those targets. Finally, we have the interceptors themselves, which are deployed in launcher batteries, each containing from four to twenty interceptors, depending on the specific system. Typically, eight or more launcher batteries are deployed with each radar and control system.
Multiple systems can be tied together to share tracking and command functions and to allow a layered defense. For example, the critical island base of Guam in the Pacific will integrate a layered island defense based on THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) for long-range defense, Patriot for mid-layer defense, and Iron Dome systems as a short-range defense. In addition, very short-range, “point defense,” C-RAM (Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar) Gatling gun systems are used as final defense and to engage massive drone attacks should one be launched against the island (Peters 2024).
Closing Thoughts
Returning to the ongoing Iran-Israel war. The U.S. Central Command integrates radar and reconnaissance real-time intelligence from U.S. assets (Aegis-equipped U.S. warships, and THAAD and Patriot systems), and our Gulf Allies ( UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia), including Israel. That is why Iran’s ballistic missile saturation attacks have had such limited success. The U.S. doesn’t just have a layered missile defense that bolsters Israel’s world-class Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems; the same assets protect our Gulf Allies and a bulk of the world's energy supply.
Since October 7, 2023, Iran and its proxies have waged missile attacks on a daily basis, not only at Israel, but also Red Sea shipping and our Gulf Allies’ oil production fields, and assets.
So far, our joint defenses are holding up … but there is a looming problem:
What if we deplete the U.S. and Israel's supply of defensive missile Interceptors?
See you next week ... Happy Father's Day
That’s it for this week … Happy Father’s Day!
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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