On April 8th, 2026, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Kane gave a briefing on Operation Epic Fury. Kane listed a series of tactical victories over Iran’s air defenses, missile forces, navy, and military economic infrastructure.
Hegseth declared Epic Fury was “historic and overwhelming victory.”
The tone of the briefing was a premature declaration of victory. In fact, later in the day, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declared, “Ceasefire was victory.” A dubious claim.
Yes, the US Military’s performance was outstanding. As Hegseth stated, “In less than 40 days, Central Command, using less than 10 percent of America’s total combat power, dismantled one of the world’s largest militaries, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.”
However, Hegseth followed up with a false statement: “Iran proved utterly incapable of defending itself. … Together with our Israeli partners, America’s military achieved every single objective.”
Really?
Let’s recall the POLITICAL OBJECTIVES laid out by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on March 4, early in operation Epic Fury:
“At the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, launched last weekend, President Trump laid out clear objectives to the American people on what the U.S. military seeks to accomplish through these major combat operations.
Number one, destroy the regime’s deadly ballistic missiles and completely raze their missile industry to the ground.
Number two, annihilate the Iranian regime’s navy
Number three, Operation Epic Fury will ensure the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the free world and attack our armed forces
Number four, this mission will guarantee Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.”
Of course, there is a silent Number Five—to reopen the Hormuz Strait. President Trump and his administration did not consider that a decapitated Iranian regime would continue to fight. They would behave like the leadership in Venezuela and capitulate. Instead, the IRGC took control and used its most powerful deterrent: closing the Hormuz Strait. Despite constant attacks, the IRGC proved they could close the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of the world's oil is now held hostage, leading to inflation and a likely worldwide recession.
Let’s break down the US objectives:
- Number one, destroy the regime’s deadly ballistic missiles and completely raze their missile industry to the ground. Yes, we have degraded missile stocks, launchers, and industry – yet what remains can still keep the Hormuz Strait closed.
- Number two, obliterate Iran’s navy. Capital ships, naval production, and half of Iran’s attack speed boats have been destroyed. Yet Iran has enough remaining speed boats hidden in the islands and along the coast to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage.
- Number three, stop Iran’s proxies. Israel is still fighting Hamas, and the Houthis still fire missiles at Israel. Iran may not be able to fund the proxies; however, Hamas and the Houthis have enough missile stocks to cause trouble for years.
- Number four, guarantee Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon. We are still missing or have not destroyed the over 400 Kg of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium, which can make roughly 11 nuclear weapons. Further, we have not obliterated all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially PickAx Mountain. As I pointed out in my last two Dystoic newsletters, only tactical nuclear weapons or boots on the ground can achieve this goal. Both of which have been off the table.
- Number five, an unintended consequence and miscalculation of a war against Iran, is to regain full control of the Hormuz Strait. Without Iran’s cooperation, this task becomes difficult. The US and Israel would need to militarily control all Iranian-held islands in the Persian Gulf and key ports like Bandar Abbas. It would require a massive boots-on-the-ground operation, leading to significant casualties. As I emphasized in the last two Dystopic issues, a short tactical nuclear campaign against military targets could save lives on both sides.
The peace talks, starting April 10th in Pakistan, are practically a ruse by both sides. As the Gulf News noted, “Both sides remain divided over regional security conditions.” The two sides are very far apart. Iran is playing for time to reorganize its resistance. The US, for its part, aims to avoid a boots-on-the-ground campaign, avoiding another forever war. So, in my opinion, peace talks are a last-ditch effort for the US.
Speaking of peace talks. There are some obvious questions about the details we have been given so far:
- Exactly which Iranian officials are we negotiating with?
- Are these Iranian officials empowered to negotiate?
- Most importantly, do the Iranian officials represent and have power over the IRGC?
The absence of named negotiators and official Iranian government statements supporting talks is revealing. The ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Middle East are also exposing the situation. We are not dealing with credible negotiations.
Why Are We Here?
President Trump watched as his personal polls dropped along with support for the war and rising gas prices, and he did what he always does: claimed a partial victory as if it were a full victory and walked away under the guise of a ceasefire, hoping everything would turn out okay. How is this any different from President Biden's Afghanistan debacle?
Who is left bearing the brunt of all of Trump's impulsive actions? The US Armed Forces. They are being denied the complete victory that the US military is capable of achieving. The American people will face both inflation and an over $200 billion bill to replenish our depleted weapons supplies.
Go ahead, Trump Administration, pat yourself on the back and declare a faux victory, but the real truth is that the ceasefire is a political expediency of the worst kind.
As I have always maintained, dictatorships, including theocratic dictatorships like Iran, have historically never surrendered. Iran, like Germany and Japan in World War 2, and Saddam Husain, in Iraq, will have to experience complete and total destruction before they will capitulate. In the case of Iran, I predict two conditions could bring what is left of the regime to truly sue for peace :
- Destruction of much of the IRGC. not just decapitation, but outright destruction of these forces. Having decapitated Iran’s theocratic leadership, the IRGC is in control of IRAN. We are talking about killing 10s of thousands of troops and associated collateral civilian casualties to create the conditions for the civilian Iranian’s have an opportunity to take over and
- Destruction of Iran’s Energy and utilities (water and sewage) infrastructure. While there would be short term collateral casualties in the thousands, longer term, this would induce massive suffering and death in Iran’s civilian population
As a headline from the Wall Street Journal heralded on Friday, April 3rd:
Control Over Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Who Wins the War
Only time will tell the full tale.
