January 25, 2025

Dystopic Newsletter

Dystopic Fire and Ice: the Big Freeze and the Big Fire as seen from Space. An Earther Observation Satellite a Primer, Davos, and other Political Machinations

The Frozen Great Lakes, January 2025 – Earth Observation Image via Maxar WorldView Legion Satellite

This week's Dystopic will use images from the historic "Big Freeze" and the LA fires to introduce a revolution in commercial satellites for earth observation (EO). By now, we are all familiar with the space communications revolution provided by SpaceX's Starlink satellite network. In parallel, an equivalent commercial revolution and capability has been built in optical and radar earth observation satellites. These systems are capable of capturing image features <0.3 meters.

Consider the lead image of the Great Lakes. A few days before this image was taken, there was zero ice build-up. In a handful of days, the record cold caused a layer of ice to form across these massive inland seas. You can see the ice vapor rise off thet lakes, creating the "lake effect snow" that people from North East Ohio to Buffalo, New York, know so well.

Today, you can log into a website and pay a modest fee to task a commercial satellite to image nearly any place in the globe you request. Not only can you get a fresh image taken in less than one day, but you can also gain access to a series of earlier images. Image analysis over time can measure crop yields and storm /natural disaster damage. It can even assess improvements you can make to your property for tax purposes. Consider the series of images of the LA fires, including a before and after picture of a Pacific Palisades neighborhood. It's a chilling view, in my opinion.

So, what would the purchase price of a satellite image be, you may ask? It costs about $500 for a low-resolution image with about 4 meters of accuracy and $5000 for a high-resolution image with roughly 0.3 to 0.5 meters of accuracy. You can purchase optical or radar images ( SAR -synthetic aperture radar). SAR satellite images can penetrate cloud cover and storms for "all weather reconnaissance" and measure rates of motion. Fun fact - ICEYE, a Finland-based operator of SAR satellites, provides Ukraine with around-the-clock images of Russian troop movements along with standard imaging provided by Maxar. Within days of the start of the war, Ukraine could match of exceed Russia's real-time intelligence from its aging intelligence satellite network.

Commercial EO satellites today provide imaging quality at a level that only classified military and intelligence satellites could provide 10 to 15 years ago. You literally have the capabilities of NRO (National Reconnaissance Office), CIA, and NSA at your fingertips. The progress is impressive!

Since the purpose of Dystopic is to provide a glimpse of "The Technology Behind Today's News," Let's take a brief look at EO satellite technology. I'll use some material from a chapter in my upcoming book "How the Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to the New Cold War and Rebuilding Deterrence" as a resource.

Speaking of my book ..

I'm up to my ears in final revision edits and looking for a late May release (hopefully). You can find out more about my book and book release updates at my Website HERE​

As if that wasn't enough on my plate, I'll be giving a lecture at the Small Satellite Symposium in Mountain View, CA, on Wednesday, February 4^th. The topic, not so coincidentally, is "Tech Brief – Technological Challenges of SAR." I'll also be leading a panel discussion titled "Discussion on AI Applications in Earth Observation."

You can find out more about the Small Satellite Symposium and this summer's European Small Satellite Symposium HERE​

Now Back to Our Scheduled Dystopic …

A Primer on Earth Observation Satellite Technology (from chapter 6 of my book)

Two technologies dominate space-based earth observation satellites and satellite intelligence:

• Hyperspectral imaging: Imaging extended above and below human visual acuity to the infrared and ultraviolet spectrum
• Synthetic aperture RADAR (SAR): A RADAR technology that takes advantage of the high velocities (17,000 MPH) of an orbiting spacecraft to create a high-resolution virtual (synthetic) antenna.

Imaging Satellites (Hyperspectral Imaging)

Imaging satellites have been in continuous use since 1960 when the U.S. launched TRIOS -1, a weather satellite providing imaging of the Earth in the visual light spectrum (i.e., the frequency range of light humans can see). By 1974, with the launch of LANDSAT-1, space imaging technology had evolved to extend the frequency of light captured to include infrared, visible, and ultraviolet light but to subdivide the light spectrum into sub-bands. LANDSAT-1 divided the lite spectrum spectrum into 10- sub-bands. (Science Learning Hub n.d.)

As it turns out, plants and inorganic matter (rocks, soil, sand, etc.) reflect light's specific spectral components. They have "spectral signatures." If we divide the light spectrum into smaller and smaller sub-bands, referred to as "hyperspectral images," we get highly defined and detailed spectral signatures ideal for AI – Machine Learning feature identification. Since launching LANDSAT-1, scientists and data analysts have been perfecting hyperspectral image analysis and feature identification for civilian and military applications.

Commercial satellite imaging started with the launch of SPOT(French for Satellite pour l'Observation de la Terre") in 1986. SPOT proved the business model that commercial and international government customers would pay for high-quality satellite imagery. For several decades, SPOT had the market cornered. However, SPOT is limited; as a single satellite, SPOT can only revisit and take a picture of a given location once daily. (ESA n.d.)

In 2014, the small satellite revolution changed all that. A series of commercial startups began producing "constellations" of satellites (i.e, multiple satellites on multiple orbital planes) in low earth orbit with revisit times of an hour or less. Not only could you get high-quality images, but you also could take them frequently enough to detect and track the movement of troops and equipment. Today, the following companies operate commercial imaging satellite constellations.

Serendipity played a hand in 2020 at the start of the Ukraine War. Several imaging satellite constellations were launched and fully operational, and within weeks, they would prove invaluable to Ukraine.

However, there are drawbacks to imaging satellites. Except for infrared light created by heat generation, imaging satellites can only process areas illuminated by the sun. They are daylight-operated. The other drawbacks are clouds, smoke, and other weather impairments. Imaging is a daylight, "fair weather" only operation. You need RADAR imaging for day/night all-weather operations, which brings us to our next topic: Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Satellites.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Satellites

Hot air balloons have been used for military observation since the French Revolution in the late 1790s. French photographer and balloonist Gaspard-Félix Tournachon took the first successful aerial photograph in 1858 from nearly 300 feet above Paris. No sooner had the Wright brothers conducted their first successful powered flight than planes were adapted with cameras, ushering in the era of military photographic reconnaissance used extensively through the World Wars to the 1960s Cold War when satellite imaging rose to prominence. (Johnson 2018)

Photographic and later EO - Earth Observation hyperspectral satellites suffered from a major operational flaw: the weather. Clouds, fog, and rain all block or severely limit imaging resonance. In 1951, Carl Wiley, an engineer at defense contractor Goodyear Aerospace ( later part of Lockheed Martin aerospace), developed and patented the Synthetic aperture SAR concept as a solution to all-weather imaging.(Colburn 2009)

Synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) is a form of radar used to create two-dimensional images or three-dimensional reconstructions of objects, such as landscapes. The distance the SAR satellite travels over a target in the round trip return time of radar pulses to the satellite creates a large "synthetic" antenna aperture. For example, a typical LEO ( Low Earth Orbit) satellite in 450 km orbit above the Earth makes a synthetic antenna almost 0.9km long. Think about that for a second; that is an antenna that is nine football fields in size – impressive! SAR can create high-resolution images with relatively small physical antennas, making it perfect for implementation in small satellites. (Berens 2006)

To be sure, the U.S. has impressive SAR capabilities, but the record of adopting SAR in military aircraft and intelligence reconnaissance satellites is highly classified and limited. The commercial use of SAR can be traced back to NASA's SEASAT. SEASAT, launched in 1978, is the first documented satellite-based use of SAR. SEASAT's original mission was to capture actual ocean and wave activity images, but it quickly expanded to generate detailed earth imaging. (Seasat, n.d.) In the early 2010s, NASA's Pet Propulsion Lab, taking advantage of the budding small satellite revolution, funded a series of SAR "cube sat" validation experiments.

NASA's technology validation success led to a series of startups receiving funding and developing, launching, and operating small constellations LEO capable of imaging resolutions < 50 cm. Today, the following companies operate commercial SAR satellite constellations:

Like their Imaging small satellite counterparts, several commercial SAR imaging constellations were up and running at the start of the Ukraine War. The Ukrainians would have fair and foul weather SAR and standard imaging. They quickly integrated these intelligence-gathering capabilities into their C4I system, allowing them to focus their limited forces on the precise positions of advancing Russian troops and armor to devastating effect.

Davos and Other Political Machinations

Week one of the promised Trump Administration's "Shock and Awe" first 100 day campaign is underway (for better or worse). President Trump's videotaped brief to the attendees of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this week provided a preview of the sort of "wrecking ball foreign relations tactics" we can expect over the next four years.

Founded in 1971, the World Economic Forum confab in Davos is host to nearly 3000 business leaders, international political leaders, economists, celebrities, and journalists. The so-called "global elite." World Economic Forum champions the World Economic Order created after World War 2 under the Brenton Woods Agreement , which evolved into the IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), and the rest of the Western World's financial institutions. They also promote fully open markets and borders along with fear and loathing of Donald J. Trump.

As expected, Trump presented his alternate view of how the world should run:

"My message to every business in the world is very simple: Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth, But if you don't make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff."

President Donald Trump's videotaped message to World Economic Forum Members - Thursday, January 23, 2025

He also went on to explain his concerted efforts to increase U.S. energy production as an economic weapon against Russia ( and Iran) with the added benefit of lowering inflation and interest rates.

As Trump explained, "(When) The price (of oil) is high enough that that war will continue. You got to bring down the oil price. You could end that war. (Ukraine-Russia war)"

While I agree with energy policy as a positive tool for Western economies and a weapon against Iran and Russia, the U.S. needs its EU and Western Pacific Allies. His over-indexing on tariffs could harm our military and security alliances. Perhaps it is all negotiating rhetoric -that would be great. I still view aggressive economic moves as divisive concerning our national security interests and maintaining a unified Western New Cold War policy… We'll just have to see how it all plays out.

One thing is clear to the U.S. electorate and the world from these first few days of the Trump Administration: He is going to carry out his campaign promises.

That's a wrap for this week …

Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News

Thank you for your readership and support. Please recommend Dystopic to friends and family who are interested, or just share this email. New Readers can sign up for Dystopic HERE​

Want to Learn about more commercial Earther Observation satellite systems?

Information about MAXARs Earther Observation Worldview Legion constellation of Satellites can be found HERE​

Information about UBMBRA's SAR imaging can be found HERE​

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