Happy New Year 2026. If you're reading this, you likely stayed out of trouble on New Year’s Eve and are not doing time for your various misdeeds! Your year is off to a good start, and you are reading Dystopic to stay informed. So an even better start: “Good on You,” as the British say.
Over the last 25 years of my career, I have held positions as CTO and then CEO at companies ranging from Fortune 100 firms (Dell, TI, and Comcast) to a satellite terminal start-up (SatBridge) with a staff of 25. For each of those 25 years, I’ve presented to my various Boards of Directors a 1-year plan and a 5-year roadmap. It is no surprise that, since I took up writing as a hobby 5 years ago, one of my favorite topics each year has been my annual piece, “PREDICTIONS.” After all, I’ve had some practice charting the future.
Before we get to our 2026 Predictions, let's take a lookat how my 2025 Predictions fared. After all, why should you waste your time reading the 2026 version if my “ batting percentage” in 2025 was “shit.”
2025 Predictions – How did I do?
If you missed Dystopic – 2025 Predictions, you can find a copy HERE. It’s still relevant and provides valuable insight; besides, it’s winter. So quit turning your mind to mush, watching aimless, mindless YouTube videos, and step up your entertainment with some factual content that may actually help you :-)
If you have missed a Dystopic News letter, you can find select back copies HERE
Prediction 1: The U.S. and our Allies Begin Rebuilding the West's Deterrence Regime
Score: 70%
This is a mixed bag. Europe is finally stepping up to carry its fair share of the financial burden of protecting Europe. With few exceptions (e.g., Spain), European nations have committed to at least 3.5% of GDP for defense spending. Poland and the Baltic states, which are on the front line woth Russia, are already at or exceeding the 3.5%. The problem for Europe is that it may take up to a decade to become self-sufficient in staffing, personnel training, equipment, and operations. Europe is not “fit to fight.” Still, we exit 2025 in a far better position with respect to Europe and Russia than when the year started, despite bruised European egos.
In the Middle East, based in part on military operations across Iran and its ‘Axis of Resistance' (Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), Israel and the moderate Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, are expanding on the Abraham Accords. For the first time in as long as I can remember, the Middle East is beginning to pursue real peace and prosperity. A Stable Middle East is Critical to Deterrence.
In the Pacific, the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has led to increased spending on Japan's military budget and a new, strident voice against Chinese gray-zone tactics in Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Philippines agreed to the new basing and support agreements. South Korea and Japan are nearing a defense cooperation accord. Finally, AUKUS, the agreement between Australia, the UK, and the US to provide nuclear submarines to Australia, has been reaffirmed by President Trump.
Unfortunately, all of these moves have been transactional. The US has still failed to build a comprehensive New Cold War strategy embraced by all the Western Allies and across party lines. This is a strategic failure for the US and our Allies.
Prediction 2: The U.S., Israel, or Both Take Out a Majority of Iran's Nuclear Facilities.
Score: 100%
Several dystopian readers pushed back on this. They insisted the US lacked the courage and willingness to carry out a strike. Unfortunately, Iran’s attacks on Israel and progress in its nuclear weapons program had reached a point where action was necessary. “Necessity is the Mother of Invention.” That invention was Operation “Midnight Hammer,” the operation to take out Iran's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. The strike by an Air Armada traveling from the US was a resounding success. Following the attack, thet Trump Administration imposed sanctions which are now crippling Iran's economy. Iranians are rioting in the streets as I write this.
Prediction 3 – Putin Refuses the Peace Terms Laid Out by Trump to End the Ukraine War
Score: 100%
We end 2025 with Russia suffering over 1.2 million casualties with over 400,000 KIA. The war is costing 30,000 Russians and Ukrainians a month (mostly Russian).
On the one hand, I admire President Trump’s tenacity in attempting to achieve a ceasefire followed by peace negotiations, by any means possible. A rational actor would have agreed to negotiate.
DICTATORS ARE NOT RATIONAL ACTORS!
Dictators are cold-blooded megomaniacs who attempt to create cults of personality and historonic narratives to feed their ultra narcissism. They don’t care about casualties; they only care about self-created narratives; puffery about their place in history. The benign dictator, much like benign communism, is a myth as history has repeatedly shown.
The US will have to go all in on arming Ukraine and imposing the most severe economic sanctions, and accelerating another million or more Russian casualties will bring Putin to the peace table. Sadly, Body bags of Russian dead, not peace overtures, are all this man understands.
Prediction 4- AI has a problem – the cost of energy to run massive server farms
Score: 85%
The build-out of AI facilities, with their massive power consumption, has raised alarms among utility regulators worldwide. Power is needed and needed quickly. So much so that, in the US and globally, retired nuclear reactors are being modernized, recommissioned, and brought back online. Here are a few examples:
Palisades Nuclear Plant (Michigan)
Three Mile Island Unit 1 (Pennsylvania) -Yes – Three Mile Island!!!
Under consideration - Duane Arnold (Iowa)
Japan shut all reactors after the 2011 Fukushima. 14 reactors have already been brought online. Another three are scheduled to go online. Four more reactors are under review.
I thought at least one SMR, Small Modular Reactors\, would have come online in 2025. Unfortunately, the first SMR, Oklo's Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory, will not begin operation till 2027. The first commercial, grid-scale SMRs are expected to begin operations around 2030 or later. (I’ll take a hit on that miss :-) )
Hydrogen Fusion is an enigma. Fusion always seems to be 10 years away. Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Helion Energy, TAE Technologies, Marvel Fusion, and General Fusion all claim they will be online for testing in the 2027 to 2030 time frame. I have my fingers crossed.
The big win for the energy industry is that public opinion around the world has shifted from being against nuclear power (and possibly Nuclear Fusion) to being supportive. Furthermore, the public now understands that Solar and Wind are critical but cannot replace reliable generation that operates 24 hours a day.
Prediction 5 – SpaceX takes over the Artemis Moon Program, leaving Boeing and NASA in the Dust
Score: 60%
I’m only partially correct on this prediction. Jared Isaacman, a billionaire entrepreneur, skilled pilot, and veteran of private spaceflights, has just been confirmed to lead NASA. As outlined in Astronomy Magazine:
Isaacman wants to move NASA away from what he calls the “taxpayer-dependent model.” He envisions a new space economy in which commercial activities eventually generate enough value to cover the cost of operating in space.
In a 62-page document titled “Project Athena,” Issacman lays out a roadmap for a parallel path to the Moon and Mars. From a commercial standpoint, SpaceX, Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos' company), Rocket Labs, Firefly Aerospace, and Intuitive Machines will benefit. Furthermore, Issacman is implementing major reforms for traditional NASA contractors, including Aerojet Rocketdyne, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, to ensure the success of the Artemis Moon project.
Rather than replace traditional NASA contractors (my prediction), NASA will use commercial space companies to bolster and lead reform—plain old competition.
In other big news. Blue Origin joins SpaceX as 2nd company to successfully recover the primary stage of their launch vehicle for reuse. Reuse is critical for any commercial launch company to achieve financial success and reduce per-kilogram costs to orbit.
Prediction 6 – LEO is getting crowded with communications Mega constellations
Score: 100%
Finally, StarLink Satellite faces real competition from Amazon LEO (formerly Amazon’s “Kuiper” program). In November 2025, Amazono offered preview services. Amazon closed the year with 180 of the expected 3,200 satellites in its constellation. Commercial service for residential and business customers is likely to begin in 2026.
Of course, US companies are not alone. China began launching its Thousand Sails (Qianfan) satellite constellation. Designed to rival SpaceX, Qianfan is a massive Chinese state-backed Low Earth Orbit (LEO) network expected to have a 15,000-satellite constellation. Like Amazon, 180 satellites plus two spares were launched in 2025.
China is also trying to join SpaceX and Blue Origin in having a reusable launcher. There are actually two Chinese efforts: private LandSpace (Zhuque-3) and state-owned CASC (Long March 12A). Both experienced reusable rocket launch recovery failures in late 2025. 2026 Predictions
So much for 2025. On to 2026 ...
2026 Predictions.
The World has become very chaotic. Three factors are in play:
Geopolitics: The US-led West is competing both economically and militarily over spheres of interest with the “Axis of Tyranny,” China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The large non-aligned powers, India and Brazil, are caught in the middle. Ukraine, Taiwan, and Iran remain hotspots in the geopolitical landscape.
AI: Large Language Model (LLM) AI started to rival humans at many tasks in 2025. Physical AI is following LLM AI, with robotaxis and humanoid robots. “The Machine Age” is upon us, and we will all need to adapt to the 4th industrial revolution.
Tariffs: An intentional act by President Trump is still reverberating across the global economy. This should be settled by the end of 2026. The question is: what is the end state for the global economy? The US is not alone in the tariff game. China's massive production capacity is creating barriers worldwide to protect local economies from Chinese “dumping.”
Let's start with geopolitics …
Prediction 1: Putin continues to refuse Trump’s peace initiatives – with consequences
They say, “The Past is prologue.” Putin will continue rejecting Trump’s overtures for peace. Putin’s request for the Donbas and its fortress cities, along with limiting the size of Ukraine's army, leaves Ukraine and Europe exposed to future Russian adventurism.
By late spring, with Russians nearing 1.5 million casualties and Ukraine having a third more, President Trump will have finally had enough. We have seen Trump “flip the switch” on Iran and then Venezuela. He will resort to maximum pressure sanctions against Russia and any country economically supporting Russia. There will be significant implications for Chinese trade and for further Iranian sanctions. As a trading partner of Russia, India will be caught in the crossfire.
Relations with Europe will improve as a result, as the US will be viewed as standing solidly with NATO.
Predication 2: Iran is unfinished business: maximum pressure sanctions and a green light for Israel to strike again.
Iran will use force to quell the current protest over their deteriorating economy. Trump will respond with a series of three actions:
Applying the maxium level of sanctions possible on Iran. In essence, creating an oil and trade embargo. This will have a knock-on effect, angering China, the major purchaser of Iranian oil at deep discounts.
For Iran failing to enter negotiations to eliminate its nuclear weapons development program and rebuild its ballistic missile production facilities. The US supports another major round of strikes by Israel. Despite the strikes, Iran remains defiant. Which leads to the final action for 2026
The US and Israel determined that a leadership decapitation strike is the only way to ensure change. Israel, with its deep Mossad intelligence capabilities, takes the lead in providing the US “culpable deniability.”
I wish Iran’s leadership was intelligent enough to stop the current path and negotiate. Unfortunately, dictators are dictators and, historically, are replaced through a “bad ending.” This is a real shame for the Iranian people, as it will not be clear when the dust settles if a moderate government or a more militant one will arise from the ashes.
As I write this newsletter wide spread protests across Iran could achieve US and Israeli gools to disarm Iran without intervention.
Predictions 3: As Venezuela falls, so falls Cuba and Colombia?
In breaking news, "Operation Absolute Resolve," the US operation to capture and arrest President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, has been a complete success. However, the fact that the US mobilized a vast armada of Navy, Marine, and Force assets in the Caribbean began a countdown to achieve a diplomatic solution or resort to the use of force
“ Mobilization Means War”
- German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg (prior to the onset of WW1)
Maduro foolishly let the clock run out on negotiations. He did not understand the calculus of military mobilization. Neither did Iran when a US Navy armada showed up in the Mediterranean and rebuffed President Trump's negotiations. I cannot say this is a good or bad outcome, as the endgame for Venezuela remains unknown. The hope is that new elections will bring stability, and the return of confiscated US oil leases will bring prosperity to both the US and Venezuela
This brings us to the fates of Cuba and Colombia.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro appears to have a tin ear when he declared that he will “take up arms,” after President Trump warned that Colombia would be next if the cocaine trafficking does not stop.
Prediction 3a: The US will waive its “big stick,” and Colombia will back down.
Other than stopping the drug trade and associated narco terror, Colombia has little to offer the US strategically or economically compared to Venezuela. However, if Trump builds up a Naval Armada off Colombia’s Pacific or Gulf coast, all bets are off.
Cuba is another matter. It has little value beyond being a nuisance. Cuba does have 1.6 million Cuban refugees in Southern Florida, the diaspora of the communist takeover, who have a strong political voice to return their homeland to democracy. Cuban Americans also have the wealth and motivation to rebuild their former homeland.
Economically, Cuba is a failed state and an imminent disaster. With little effort other than cutting off oil to Cuba from Venezuela, combined with some “saber rattling”, the current government will likely fall.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban American, has called for exactly that strategy.
Prediction 3b: The fall of the Cuban communist government and the restoration of democracy, with Cuban Americans leading the way.
The end result of the upheaval and the fall of socialist governments in the Western Hemisphere is fraught with potential failure. I hope President Trump understands the old phrase ‘You break it, you own it!” It's easy to win a battle, but hard to win the peace.
There is a second knock-on effect of the US settling issues with force. Our behavior is a parallel to the aggressive behavior of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran – We have lost thet moral high ground. We now hold ourselves to a double standard:
“Rules for thee but not for me”
In truth, Russia and China have been breaking international law for years. President Trump had little choice but to “fight fire with fire.” Hundreds of thousands of Americans are dead due to the drug trade. It had to stop.
Prediction 4: The summit between Chinese President Xi and US President does not go well. Seeing the US commitments in Latin America and Iran, Xi begins a blockade of Taiwan, at least a year, if not 2 years earlier than expected.
President Xi must be looking at the US Armed Forces' global reach and audacious successes in 2025 with trepidation and envy (as an aside, Putin should too). However, these operations are also tying up resources that should be positioned to improving deterrence in the Pacific. In 2026, China has a rare opportunity to leverage the US positioning of forces to its advantage.
It would also involve tremendous risk for a powerful but untested Chinese military.
President Trump has confirmed that he will visit President Xi in Beijing, China, in April 2026. The hope is that the two leaders will reach a grand compromise on trade and spheres of influence, especially regarding Taiwan and the Western Hemisphere. Of course, the meeting could end with no grand compromise. This is where it gets interesting.
China cannot interfere in the Western Hemisphere. It does not have the strength. If it did, it would project power to protect Venezuela and Cuba. Like defending Iran from Israel, the Western Hemisphere does not present enough reward to compensate for China to risk armed conflict with the US in its own backyard.
That is not true of China’s long-stated goal of integration of Taiwan peacefully or by force with the thet rest of China. With US naval power dispersed, there is a window where the US is at a distinct military disadvantage: the first 3 quarters of 2026.
If the US and China do not reach an agreement on their differences at the Trump-Xi summit in April, President Xi could order a blockade of Taiwan. A bold move to be sure. While a blockade is a measured use of force. Unfortunately, a military mishap is likely to escalate the conflict into war.
2026 is a year earlier than Xi’s standing in order to be in a position to use force in 2027. Surprise is critical to military success … food for thought.
Let’s turn to technology predictions:
Prediction 5: AI consolidates and experiences a correction, but not a crash.
There seems to be two schools of thought amongst investment professionals about US AI investment and markets:
We are sitting in an AI bubble, and AI companies are headed for a market valuation crash. The AI crash will have a serious impact across the US and global markets. A view shared by the The Guardian
A more moderate view as espoused by Fortune and other financial analysts: AI is not in a “dot com” speculative bubble. However, a correction and shakeout of marginal AI companies that sound good on paper but are failing in execution is overdue.
I side with the moderate view. 2026 will likely see a correction across AI companies whose technical roadmaps and execution make them unprofitable. We will also see consolidation with some marginal companies going bankrupt and others being acquired. Given that major AI players (such as Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia) have established products that generate real profits, a true AI crash seems far-fetched.
In 2026, businesses will continue to climb the AI learning curve, increasing both efficiency and profits. AI will continue its virtuous cycle of expanding applications, improving implementation success, and delivering greater efficiency.
For example, AI model training is expected to improve efficiency by 10x thanks to new virtual training environments such as Nvidia’s Omiverse. Likewise, Nvidia’s next-gen AI platform, Vera Rubin for AI supercomputing, announced at CES 2026, will increase processing speed by a factor of 5. The AI cycle of improvements continues.
In short, progress in AI applications and progress toward profitability will help the AI market avoid a crash, but not a consolidation and correction.
Prediction 6: Back to the Moon – another banner year for the Space Economy.
2025 was an unprecedented year for both commercial, government-funded space companies. As noted previously, progress was made across space exploration, satellite communications, Earth Observation/Military Reconnaissance, and missile defense.
2026 is poised to bring even further success across all fronts of the space economy. The most notable exploits will involve the Moon and possibly Mars.
Man is going back to the Moon in 2026! NASA is launching a 10-day Artemis II mission to fly a crew of four astronauts around the moon and return home. If successful, Artemis III's mission will attempt to land a human crew on the Moon in 2028.
Beyond the Artemis moon mission, an ambitious series of unmanned lunar missions is scheduled fo 2026 as outlined by Payload:
Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 Pathfinder mission is expected to fly as early as Q1, on a New Glenn rocket.
Astrobotic Technology’s Griffin-1 lander is targeting a launch in July.
China’s Chang’e-7 mission to the lunar south pole is aiming to launch in August.
Firefly’s Blue Ghost Mission 2 lander is aiming to fly before the end of this year.
Intuitive Machines’ IM-3 mission is also expected to launch this year.
I hope each of these important lunar missions is a success!
SpaceX Starship is taking off from Starbase in Texas (SpaceX)
Hohmann Transfer Orbit (Sat Now)
SpaceX's 2026 trip to Mars is scrubbed:
SpaceX Starship, the largest and most efficient launch vehicle humankind has ever built, is expected to achieve operational status in 2026. If it does, Elon Musk could make good his promise to launch a mission to Mars in 2026.
It would have been a long shot, but I believe Musk and SpaceX could have attempted a Starship mission to Mars during the Homman launch window, November/December 2026. If not, SpaceX will have to wait until December 2028/January 2029.
In breaking news, Elon Musk announced that a Mars mission would be a distraction and that an uncrewed flight would "most likely" occur in 2029. SpaceX needs to focus its Starship development on in-orbit refueling, a capability critical to the next decade's manned lunar exploration and to establishing a permanent moon base.
Beyond these predictions are many other possibilities in 2026. Suffice it to say, science and technology will continue to progress across all fronts in energy, AI, robotics, augmented reality, and 1000’s of other disciplines. I look forward to sharing a few of them with you throughout the year in the Dystoic Newsletter.
As a final look at 2025, I’ll share an excerpt from my book, which focuses on what we could learn about the Trump Presidency from his first 100 days in office
How The Hell Did We Get Here? is a timely look at geopolitics and the political, economic, military, and intelligence levers used to maintain peace amid a New Cold War. It could not be a more timely read. Check out the book, comments, and reviews HERE.
Predictions: An Excerpt from How the Hell Did We Get Here?
Epilogue: President Trump’s First One Hundred Days
As this book goes to publication, it is nearing the end of President Trump’s first one hundred days. Typically, a president’s first one hundred days set the agenda that will likely carry through the president’s entire four-year term. A near whirlwind of executive orders—many of which are held up in the courts—policy directives, and outright dismantling of parts of the federal government has marked President Trump’s first one hundred days. Armed with a mandate from both an electoral and popular vote victory, President Trump has executed more significant changes domestically and internationally than any president in history. He has become the great disruptor.
The goal of this book is to understand the new Cold War and rebuild deterrence and to highlight the actions the US and our Western allies should pursue to improve deterrence and maintain peace. Looking through this lens, let’s evaluate the major actions President Trump has taken.
The border: Executive orders locked the American border down along with approving sweeping deportations of criminal illegal aliens. This security issue can be considered closed as, within weeks, border crossings have dropped to the lowest in twenty-five years. In that regard, President Trump’s actions can be viewed as a success. They are not, however, without their controversies, especially the deportation issue, which is now working its way through the courts.
The Ukraine-Russia War: In an unorthodox manner, President Trump forced the Ukrainian president, Zelenskyy, to the bargaining table to begin ceasefire negotiations with Russia. And the process only partially worked. A limited ceasefire exists that both Russia and Ukraine violate daily. While the parties are at least talking to one another, it is doubtful that Russia, given President Putin’s behavior, will stop the war. President Trump has offered and continues to offer peace negotiations and a genuine opportunity. Unfortunately, in the process, there have been knock-on effects with our allies.
The president and administration officials publicly stated that the US would not backstop a European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine as part of a final ceasefire settlement.
In addition, the US demanded that all NATO allies double their defense contributions of 2 percent and raise them to a minimum of 4 percent, if not 5 percent. The administration further stated that the US military must focus on the western Pacific and not the European theater. Moving forward, Europe will need to defend itself.
The new US-European defense positioning has undercut our NATO allies and eroded US credibility as part of the West’s overall deterrence.
Peace through Strength: The president asked no more of our NATO and extended Western allies than he did for the United States itself, increasing defense spending to 5 percent. The administration is proposing an “Iron Dome for America” missile defense shield, increasing naval expeditions and capital ship building as well as an overall set of policies and spending designed to contain China and bolster deterrence in the western Pacific.
Federal Government Spending and Reform: The federal government has needed to reform, make efficiency improvements, and reduce its scope for decades. Over the last three decades, presidents have done little but allow the federal government to overstep its bounds and spend beyond its means. Enter DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, and the host of other reforms or outright eliminations of government functions to curb federal spending. These efforts are highly controversial yet can be incredibly important for sound fiscal policy. The US can’t afford to increase military spending if it does not reduce waste and spending in other areas. Overall, these reforms add to our deterrence credibility, but they are painful for the American people.
The Iranian Nuclear Threat: The administration is just entering negotiations with Iran to eliminate its nuclear weapons program. The president has made it very clear that if Iran does not negotiate and end its nuclear weapons program, the administration will remove Iran’s nuclear facilities by force. Again, this is a proper step for improved deterrence, especially against Iran.
Tariffs and Reordering World Trade: No decision is more controversial and perhaps more threatening to our deterrence than the trade war initiated by the Trump administration. While it is understandable for the US to seek improved trade relationships with all of our partners, the worldwide tariff regime undertaken by the Trump administration is more or less a “nuclear option” economically. The US tariff regime has forced all of our allies to the bargaining table and will likely result in a broad set of trade improvements for America. This comes at the risk of creating a worldwide recession if trade terms can’t be resolved quickly. The administration is negotiating with our allies and is likely to resolve outstanding trade issues amicably with the US.
China, however, is a completely different matter. China is being singled out and punished with extreme tariffs, and it has escalated with counter-tariffs. The situation looks more like a war of will between two strong leaders and less like a rational negotiation. The US-China tariff debacle may be signaling the start of the “Great Decoupling” theorized by many pundits. The problem with President Trump’s transactional approach, not only in trade but in every aspect of relations, is that it’s undercutting the US’s credibility with our allies, neutral countries, and enemies alike.
“Peace through Strength” defense policy, border security, ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and negotiations to terminate Iran’s nuclear program all add to improving deterrence. Unfortunately, President Trump’s transactional and chaotic defense spending and terror demands have undercut US credibility.
The US desperately needs to develop a new long-term deterrence policy that is broadly accepted by both political parties at home and well-supported by our NATO and Western allies. Our strength comes from our combined economies and shared defenses. So far, President Trump is failing to define and rebuild the West’s deterrence against the Axis of Tyranny.
I’m concerned that the US and our allies can’t afford to wait four years for an election and a new president to address this issue. We can only hope that as time passes, the Trump administration becomes more thoughtful in its deliberations, measured in its actions, and inclusive of our allies in rebuilding deterrence.
Only time will tell if these actions will rebuild deterrence, resulting in a safer world. We can only hope
That’s a wrap for this week …
Dystopic- The Technology Behind Today's News
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Finally, pick up a copy of my book or listen to the new audiobook:
How The Hell Did We Get Here? A Citizen's Guide to The New Cold War and Rebuilding of Deterrence
Available on Amazon USA HERE, Amazon Internationally (on your local Amazon page), or through Barnes & Noble and other major retailers online.
