June 7, 2025

Dystopic Newsletter

1 Million Russian Casualties and A Daring Ukrainian Drone Attack

Strategic bombers ablaze from a Ukrainian drone attack on Olenya Air Base (Murmansk Oblast) Source: India Today

Update on my book : How the Hell Did We Get Here?

Another Major Milestone completed this week - my book layout is complete - 331 pages. The graphics artists are wrapping the cover designs for the e-book, paperback, and hardcover editions. Once complete, it's time to launch the book and order my tranche of books!

Meanwhile, early reviews continue to come in ...

Silvano Payne, Chief Editor and CEO, Satnews

Now, back to regularly scheduled Dystopic Newsletter

A Rough Start to Summer in Russia

June 2025 is turning out to be one of the worst months in Russian history. By the end of the month, Russia will have reached 1,000,000 casualties in its war with Ukraine. Russian casualties now exceed all other Russian losses in all other conflicts since the end of World War II. On June 1^st, Russia’s Military Transport Aviation Day, a significant holiday for the Russian armed forces, was marred by a master class in clandestine operations orchestrated by Ukraine's SBU - Sluzhba Bezpeky Ukrayiny, which translates as the Security Service of Ukraine.

Operation Pavutyna (“Spiderweb”), 18 months in the making, masterminded by SBU Lt. General Vasyl Maliuk. Maliuk earned a reputation for innovative operations, starting with his 2024 campaign using "Sea Baby" unmanned surface vessels (USVs). This campaign damaged or destroyed 26 major ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including the guided missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. The campaign forced Russia to withdraw much of its Black Sea Fleet from its base in occupied Crimea, effectively removing the Russian fleet from the western half of the Black Sea. That same year, by LT. General Maliuk planned and executed an airborne drone campaign that damaged dozens of oil plants and military production facilities deep inside Russia.

Learn more about the Ukraine SBU’s “Sea Baby” drone campaign HERE

June 1, 2025, Petrol Station Outside Olenya Air Base, Kola Peninsula, Murmansk Oblast

It was an overcast, dreary early summer day in Northern Russia. Typical for areas near Kola Bay at that time of year. The truck driver was right on schedule as he pulled into the petrol station on the outskirts of Olenya Air Base, home to the 40th Composite Aviation Regiment and its squadrons of Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers.

The driver's instructions were simple: wait at this petrol station and turn his KamAZ flatbed six-wheel truck loaded with a single wooden container over to a relief driver who would meet him there. As he sipped a cup of black tea and smoked a cigarette, the driver heard a strange, high-pitched buzzing sound, and to his surprise, drones began rising from the top of the wooden container loaded onto his KamAZ six-wheeler. In a few moments, while the driver stood there in utter shock, a flock of over 20 drones had launched into the sky heading toward Olenya Air Base.

The driver reached for his cell phone, but before he could even dial the emergency number to report what he had seen, the wooden container exploded. The driver instinctively threw himself on the ground and in the process destroyed his cell phone.

In a set of operation centers secretly located across Ukraine, drone operators from Ukraine's Secret Service, using Russia's own cellular network, guided the drones toward their targets at the air base. Flying below the radar of the bases’ Pantsir-S1 and S300 air defense systems, the drones came within visual range of their targets unmolested.

The drone operators coordinated their strikes, fanning out and attacking the unprotected Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS bombers sitting at their parking stands of the main runway. In a few moments, more than 11 strategic bombers were in flames, with collateral damage to several other bombers nearby from the fragments of the explosions.

Within moments, klaxons sound the alarm. Russian Air Force personnel, stunned by the explosions, ran around like a nest of angry red ants. It was pure pandemonium. Yet there was absolutely nothing that the base's security teams or air crews could do but watch as billions of dollars of aircraft burned.

Olenya Air Base was not alone; Diaghilevo Air Base (Ryazan Oblast), 470 km from the Ukrainian border, Belaya Air Base (Irkutsk Oblast), 4,000 km from Ukraine, and Ivanovo Air Base (Ivanovo Oblast), 700 km from the Ukrainian border, were attacked nearly simultaneously. They suffered the same fate as Olenya Air Base, no warning, no air defense engagement, just an exploded lorry outside of each of these air bases, and billions of dollars of burning strategic aircraft destroyed.

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High above these airbases in low Earth orbit, UMBRA Synthetic Aperture Radar ( SAR) satellites, whose radar imaging technology can easily penetrate any cloud cover, gathered images of the targeted areas. US-based UMBRA and Capella Space, along with Finland’s ICEYE operate constellations of SAR satellites that can revisit and image any location on Earth every four hours. The targeted images collected by UMBRA and ICEYE were beamed from orbit to satellite ground stations and transmitted by optical cable to Ukraine’s SBU bomb damage assessment teams. The SAR satellite radar images would provide further confirmation of the level of destruction that the initial drone “first-person cameras” had registered just minutes before.

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You can find out more about SAR commercial intelligence satellites from my February 5, 2025, video lecture at the Small Satellite Symposium HERE​

Operation Pavutyna (“Spiderweb”) was a complete success. Russia was completely blind sided. A total of 117 FPV (First Person View) drones were used in the strikes, which reportedly disabled 34% of Russia’s air-launched cruise missile-carrying bombers, including Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and A50 AWACs (airborne radar planes). Ukraine estimated that 41 warplanes were destroyed or damaged. A $7 billion loss of aircraft worth hundreds of millions of dollars each, obliterated by drones that cost about $2,000 each. This was asymmetric warfare at its finest.

Not since the Greeks gave the Trojans their wooden horse has there been such a daring display of clandestine operations. Granted, the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad’s exploding pager attack on Hezbollah last year ran a close second, but I digress. The point is that Operation Spinderweb was a complete success, much to the embarrassment of the Russian Armed Forces and Vladimir Putin.

It's turning out to be one hell of a June for the Russians!

Operations Pavutyna (“Spiderweb”) - The Details

This is Dystopic. Our goal is to provide the “technology behind today's news.” Let's take a closer look at Operations Spiderweb.

Early in the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian air defenses were strong enough to cause significant losses to Russian aircraft flying over Ukraine. Russia changed its tactics and began using Tu-95MS long-range BEAR and Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE supersonic strategic bombers as standoff platforms to launch powerful Kh-22 and Kh-55 cruise missiles. These cruise missiles are primarily aimed at Ukrainian civilian and power generation facilities. In addition, Ukraine wanted to target Russian A50 MAINSTAY AWACS (Airborne Warning And Control System) planes, which were providing early warning to the Russian air defense command of Ukraine's long-range drone attacks on targets deep within Russia.

To the Ukrainian leadership, no target could be more important than neutralizing this threat against Ukrainian civilians, hence the motivation to conduct Operation Spiderweb. Spiderweb was approved by Ukrainian President Zelensky personally.

The Logistics:

Ukrainian operatives smuggled approximately 150 small OSA strike drones, modular launch systems, and 300 explosive payloads into Russia through covert logistical routes. Osa, Ukrainian for “Wasp," is an FPV (First Person View) drone capable of carrying up to 3.3 kg of payload, remaining airborne for 15 minutes, and reaching speeds of up to 42 m/s (approximately 150 km/h – 93 mph). OSA drones are manufactured by Ukraine’s First Contact drone company. They are fast and can operate in heavy winds, thereby eliminating all but the most severe weather as a factor in their operation.

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The drones were concealed inside wooden modular cabins, which were then loaded onto standard cargo trucks, typically Russian KamAZ 6-wheel flatbed trucks. Panels of the modular cabins could automatically roll back by radio command to launch the drones. The wooden boxes were fitted with remotely controlled self-destruct mechanisms in case of capture or to destroy evidence after a successful launch.

Unwitting Russian drivers with no connection to the plan were hired to drive the trucks to positions just outside the airfields, including from fuel stations and roadside laybys.

All of Ukraine's operatives for the mission had returned to Ukraine before the Spiderweb was launched. Russian security services would have no perpetrators to capture and interrogate.

The Attack:

At the designated time, the roofs of the wooden modular cabins were remotely opened, and the drones launched directly from transport trucks. This minimized the distance between launch and their targets, allowing the drones to bypass Russia’s layered air defense systems—including Pantsir and S-300 units—before they could react.

The operation leveraged a combination of software enabling remote control, 4G/LTE communications, and likely AI-assisted targeting, built on open-source platforms and Ukrainian-developed tools. Typically, when Russian air defense detects a drone attack, cellular communications are turned off and GPS signals are jammed at the location of the attack. In this instance, the precisely timed and coordinated attacks provided no warning for Russia to implement countermeasures. The SBU has posted several live drone FPV videos of the attack, which provided an initial and highly accurate bomb damage assessment caused by the attack.

After all the drones were launched, the trucks exploded, indicating that they were equipped with a self-destruction mechanism

Within hours, images from SAR satellites with their cloud-penetrating all-weather capabilities supplied reconnaissance images to Ukraine's SBU command for further “bomb damage assessment.” A few days later, as the cloud cleared, the first optical satellite images added further detail to the mission and its success.

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The Targets:

Ukraine had three primary target aircraft. A short background on each is in order to understand the value of the attack.

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Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE: A supersonic medium-range (2,410 km) bomber capable of carrying Kh-22 cruise missiles, which pose a severe challenge for Ukrainian air defenses due to their high speed. The first flight of Tu-22M3 was in 1976, and it entered service in 1983. The Tu-22M3 forms part of Russia’s conventional and nuclear strike forces. You can find out more about the TU-22M3 HERE.

Tu-95m BEAR: A Soviet-era subsonic strategic bomber (range: 15,000 Km) equipped with turboprop engines. First flown in 1952, the Tu-95 entered service with the former Soviet Union in 1956 and is expected to remain in service with the Russian Air Force until at least 2040. Thet TU-95 is used as a launch platform for cruise missiles such as the Reduga Kh-55, Kh-555, and the newer Kh-101/102. Each aircraft can carry up to 16 cruise missiles. Like the U.S B-52, despite its age, the Tu-95 remains a critical asset in Russia’s long-range strike capability. You can find out more about the TU-95M HERE​

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A-50 MAINSTAY: An AWACS aircraft used by Russia to detect attacking enemy aircraft and missiles, coordinate defensive missile strikes, and guide fighter aircraft to intercept threats. The A-50 first flew in 1978. It entered service in 1984. Russia has fewer than ten operational A-50s, and each is estimated to cost around $350 million. Their loss severely limits Russia’s situational awareness and air command capabilities. You can find out More about the A-50 MAINSTAY AWACS HERE​

CRITICAL POINT: All of these aircraft were designed in the Soviet era. Russia no longer has the supply chain, funding, or design engineers to replace these systems.

The Fall Out – An After Action Report

According to CSIS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, analysts, the Ukraine attack revealed not only to Russia, but the rest of the world, the need for layered air defenses that includes simple measures such as hangar fortification and electronic warfare, along with broader efforts to deny enemy use of mobile networks and implement continuous surveillance of infrastructure near military sites.

To handle massed drone attacks, the US and Israel are developing laser-based rapid-fire “Iron Beam” Direct Energy Weapon ( DEW) system. In addition, the U.S. is developing and deploying high-power microwave (HPM) systems, like the Leonidas and ExDECS, to counter drone swarms and other UAS threats. These systems utilize directed energy to overload a drone's electronics, causing it to crash or render its operation inoperable.

As a counterfactual, imagine an attack like this at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, destroying part of the U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bomber wing or Minot Air Force Base (AFB) in North Dakota and Barksdale AFB in Louisiana, striking our B-52 fleet. The U.S. would be at war instantly with any party associated with such an attack.

On June 2^nd, a day after the Ukrainian Russian bomber drone attacks, negotiators from Ukraine and Russia met for a second round of talks in Istanbul after President Trump declared again that he wanted a quick deal to halt the fighting.

Heorhiy Tikhyi, Spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, had his own point to make as he talked with reporters ahead of the meetings on Monday:

“If Russia had agreed to a cease-fire. I guess the planes would be intact right now.”

With 1 million casualties and the loss of up to $7B in strategic bombers in a single day, you would think Vladimir Putin would consider a ceasefire and peace talks.

On Wednesday, June 5^th 2025. President Trump and President Putin had a brief phone call. Ostensibly, it was about the peace talks. However, Presidet trump walked away disappointed with their brief chat, noting that “peace is a long way off”.

In the same meeting, President Putin warned President Trump that the Ukrainians will face a “grave reprisal” in response to their audacious clandestine operation. I’m sure, as a leader who lost between 30% and 40% of his strategic bomber forces, he had to be embarrassed.

We’ll be waiting to comment on the end results, the Russian counterattack as it unfolds.

Until next week …

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